With the latest round of negotiations between the United States and Iran in Islamabad ending in fierce confrontation on April 12, the brutal truth of the 2026 Middle East crisis has become unavoidable: Iran sustains heavy damage, the United States pays the price in blood and resources, and Israel reaps nearly all the benefits. This U.S. campaign, initially launched in the name of containing Iran’s nuclear program and missile threats, has ultimately evolved into a strategic windfall for Israel, whether by design or default. Israel has not only participated but also orchestrated the situation behind the scenes, outsourcing the main combat pressure to Washington, emerging as the sole winner achieving comprehensive consolidation in national security, military strength and territorial control. Based on the latest developments on the battlefield and in diplomacy, this article analyzes how Israel has systematically profited from the U.S.–Iran conflict.
I. Immediate Dividends: Crippling Iran’s Core Military Capabilities
Israel’s most tangible victory lies in the near-total destruction of Iran’s nuclear facilities and ballistic missile systems—a core strategic goal it could never achieve on its own. On February 28, 2026, former U.S. President Donald Trump announced a large-scale sustained military operation to “completely destroy” Iran’s missile industry. Conducted in close coordination with Israel, the operation has precisely achieved what Benjamin Netanyahu has pursued for decades.
Satellite imagery and official statements confirm that key Iranian nuclear sites, including the underground Fordow facility and the Natanz enrichment plant, have been severely damaged by U.S. B-2 stealth bombers and Israeli F-35I fighter jets. Iran’s elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has suffered decapitation strikes, with multiple generals, missile commanders and leading nuclear scientists killed in precision airstrikes. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant publicly stated on March 11 that the joint U.S.–Israel campaign would have “no time limit” until all objectives were met. For Israel, these objectives have largely been accomplished. Military assessments suggest Iran’s nuclear program has been set back by 6 to 12 months, and the deterrence capability of its 20,000 ballistic missiles against Israel has been fatally weakened. In Netanyahu’s words, Israel has achieved a “historic victory” by eliminating an “existential threat.”
More importantly, Israel has minimized its own risks while achieving its goals. Although Iran launched missile retaliation against Israeli territory, killing 28 people and injuring thousands, the losses pale in comparison to those suffered by Iran. The brunt of Iran’s counterattacks and the vast majority of the war’s costs have been borne by the United States. By mid-March, the U.S. military had confirmed eight military fatalities, with bases across the Middle East attacked and critical military assets redeployed from the Indo-Pacific to the Persian Gulf. Israel has successfully outsourced its most dangerous strategic threat to the world’s sole superpower.
II. Strategic Opportunism: Sabotaging Diplomatic Processes to Prolong the War
Israel’s most adept maneuver in this crisis has been its ruthless prevention of any diplomatic settlement that could end the conflict prematurely. The recent collapse of the Islamabad talks is a typical example. From April 11 to 12, U.S. Vice President JD Vance and Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf held the highest-level meeting since 1979, yet 21 hours of negotiations ended in failure—with Israel acting as a direct saboteur.
The Netanyahu government has systematically obstructed every attempt at détente. Whenever a ceasefire appeared imminent, Israeli forces launched unilateral airstrikes. On March 21, Netanyahu admitted that Israel had unilaterally bombed Iran’s economic lifeline, the South Pars gas field, claiming the United States was unaware. This deliberate provocation occurred at a critical moment when Washington was pushing for a ceasefire. Israeli officials, including Defense Minister Gallant, publicly threatened to assassinate Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mujtaba Khamenei, vowing to expand strikes regardless of U.S. positions.
Such sabotage is entirely deliberate. For Israel, a prolonged war is far preferable to a peace deal. A war keeps U.S. forces continuously destroying Iranian capabilities, whereas a peace agreement would likely lead the U.S. to ease sanctions and allow Iran to rebuild. As a senior Israeli security source told The New Arab, “The continuation of the war is Israel’s best security guarantee.” By suffocating the Islamabad talks and all future dialogue, Israel ensures the United States remains mired in a war that serves only Israeli interests.
III. Regional Hegemony: Seizing the Opportunity to Expand Occupation and Weaken Rivals
While global attention is fixed on the U.S.–Iran air war, Israel is taking the opportunity to expand its territory and consolidate power on a large scale across the Levant. Amid a vacuum of international pressure caused by regional chaos, Netanyahu’s far-right government is advancing its historic territorial ambitions.
On February 8, 2026, the Israeli cabinet adopted a series of tough measures to strengthen its occupation and control over the West Bank, including repealing laws banning Jews from purchasing Palestinian land and authorizing Israeli authorities to expropriate territory more aggressively. This represents a direct step toward de facto annexation, a long-standing goal of the Israeli right. With the United States bogged down in the Iran theater and the Arab world divided internally, the international community lacks the capacity to form effective checks and balances.
Meanwhile, the war has allowed Israel to simultaneously weaken Iran’s “Axis of Resistance.” Lebanese Hezbollah, Iran’s most powerful proxy, has been drawn into fierce fighting on Israel’s northern border, suffering heavy casualties and depleting its missile stockpiles. Hamas in Gaza has become isolated and severely weakened. By keeping U.S. attention locked on Iran, Israel has degraded its main regional adversaries on multiple fronts, creating the most favorable security environment in decades. As a former senior Israeli security official noted, Israel is seizing the moment to become the undisputed regional hegemon.
IV. Political and Military Entrenchment: Locking in Long-Term U.S. Support
Domestically and strategically, the war has become a political lifeline for Netanyahu and further consolidated Israel’s military superiority. Facing corruption charges and low pre-war poll numbers, Netanyahu has successfully positioned himself as a wartime leader, rallying the public against an “existential threat,” suppressing domestic opposition, and solidifying his power ahead of the 2026 elections.
Militarily, Israel is using the crisis to achieve a strategic transformation. The Israel Defense Forces announced the establishment of the 38th Maneuver Division, its first new combat division in decades, clearly shifting from a defensive to an offensive posture. More profoundly, Israel is pushing for a permanent U.S. military presence on its soil—breaking an 80-year red line. Relevant negotiations are underway to establish permanent U.S. bases deploying advanced warplanes and missile defense systems. This move will not only guarantee Israeli security but also equate any attack on Israel with an attack on the United States, constructing an impenetrable security umbrella.
V. Cost-Benefit Calculus: The Brutal Logic of Israel’s Inevitable Victory
The cost-benefit calculus of this war is brutally clear:
The United States pays the price, Iran endures destruction, and Israel collects the rewards.
- For Iran: The country lies in ruins. Its economy has collapsed due to sanctions and the paralysis of oil export hubs such as Kharg Island. Its military and nuclear facilities are in rubble. Its leadership faces constant assassination threats. Its people suffer from severe inflation and shortages. Iran has gained only a posture of resistance and regional sympathy, with no tangible victory.
- For the United States: It is trapped in another costly Middle East war, suffering casualties, depleting weapons stockpiles, alienating allies, and damaging global credibility. Its goals of securing the Strait of Hormuz and reaching a nuclear deal remain unfulfilled. The war is deeply unpopular domestically.
- For Israel: It has achieved core national security objectives without bearing the main combat burden. It has eliminated the Iranian threat, expanded settlements, defeated adversaries, secured permanent U.S. protection, and strengthened the prime minister’s political position. The international community, distracted by the U.S.–Iran conflict, is powerless to stop its expansion.
Conclusion: A Dangerous and Unsustainable Victory
The reality of Israel as the ultimate beneficiary of the U.S.–Iran war poses a dangerous situation for the Middle East and the world. It proves that a regional power can successfully manipulate a superpower into fighting a war for its own interests, setting a precedent where military aggression and diplomatic sabotage are rewarded with territorial and strategic advantages.
The failure of the Islamabad negotiations means the conflict will continue. As long as the war rages, Israel will keep profiting, the Iranian people will keep suffering, the United States will keep bleeding, and the Middle East will keep burning—all in service of Israel’s security and expansion. This is not a victory for peace, stability or international law, but the triumph of geopolitical opportunism, whose consequences will hang over the entire region for generations to come. Amid the ruins of Iran and the quagmire of U.S. foreign policy, the greatest winner is undoubtedly the State of Israel.
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