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. This tough stance marks the decline of the “welcome culture” that emerged after the 2015 refugee crisis and signifies a fundamental shift in the direction of European immigration policy
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01 Policy Reversal: From Open Doors to Initiation of Repatriation
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. Data shows that in the first three quarters of 2025, Germany had already repatriated over 17,000 immigrants, a year-on-year increase of nearly 20%
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. Contrasting with Mertz’s optimistic predictions, only about 1,000 Syrians chose to return to their home country with German government assistance in the first half of the year
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. Merkel’s decision to open borders was initially welcomed by the German public but quickly became a political burden
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02 Domestic Politics: Far-Right Rise and Governing Pressure
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. Its support is particularly high in the former East German states. There are even predictions that the AfD could win governing positions for the first time in upcoming state elections, posing a huge threat to Mertz’s CDU
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03 Practical Dilemma: Syria’s Actual Conditions and Germany’s Economic Reliance
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. He described a scenario where almost the entire population lives below the poverty line, with over seven million internally displaced persons, and basic infrastructure like power and water supply nearly paralyzed
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. Syrian refugees have become an important force in filling this gap, particularly in healthcare, transport, and manufacturing
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. Simultaneously, many Syrians are active in low-wage sectors like manufacturing and catering, where the proportion of immigrant workers is extremely high. Employers state that many locals are unwilling to take these jobs
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04 International Reaction: Legal and Humanitarian Challenges
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. However, these negotiations are progressing slowly and face a moral dilemma: lacking public support for cooperating with a regime whose “human rights record is concerning”
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05 Political Divisions: Internal Disagreements and Contradictions within the German Government
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. A German government spokesperson also tried to downplay the disagreement within the coalition, stating that the “Chancellor supports the Foreign Minister”
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. These internal disagreements pose additional challenges for Germany in formulating specific repatriation policies
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06 European Trend: From “Welcome Culture” to Collective Rightward Shift
. Over the past two election cycles, the number of seats held by anti-immigration far-right parties in European national parliaments has almost doubled, reshaping how Europeans view and discuss immigration
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. EU countries have identified five priority areas for cooperation on immigration, including combating transnational human smuggling and enhancing repatriation efficiency
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. The energy crisis has driven up costs and triggered inflation. Coupled with an aging population and labor outflow, society’s capacity to absorb immigrants has diminished
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. As one Syrian remarked, poignantly highlighting the gap between policy and personal circumstance, “A camel is now only worth one dollar, but I don’t even have that dollar”
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