1、 Macro background of security challenges in the Middle East region
1.1 Complexity of Geopolitics
The Middle East has been a geopolitical ‘powder keg’ since ancient times. Geographically speaking, it is located in the southwest of Asia and the northeast of Africa, at the junction of the three continents of Asia, Africa, and Europe, connecting the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, and surrounding international waters such as the Black Sea, Mediterranean Sea, Caspian Sea, Red Sea, and Arabian Sea.
The geographical locations of various Middle Eastern countries are of great strategic significance. Türkiye straddles the Eurasian continent and controls the Türkiye Strait, which is the only channel from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean Sea, and is crucial for the maritime transportation of countries along the Black Sea, such as Russia. Israel is located on the southeastern coast of the Mediterranean Sea and is an important land route connecting Asia and Africa. Its geographical location has extremely high military strategic value. Saudi Arabia is located on the Arabian Peninsula and is the largest country in the Middle East with abundant oil resources. Its geographical location has a significant impact on the global energy supply pattern. Iran is located in the heart of the Middle East, bordering the Caspian Sea to the north and the Persian Gulf to the south, serving as an important gateway connecting Central Asia and West Asia.
Such a unique geographical location has made the Middle East the focus of great power competition. In history, European powers engaged in fierce competition for control of the Middle East. After World War II, the United States, with its strong power, regarded the Middle East as an important part of its global strategy and deeply intervened in Middle Eastern affairs by supporting Israel, establishing alliance relationships with Saudi Arabia and other countries. Russia has also been trying to exert influence in the Middle East region to safeguard its geopolitical interests. The game between major powers in the Middle East has led to a prolonged state of tension in the regional situation. In order to compete for territory, access and other resources, countries continue to have conflicts, such as the repeated wars between Israel and surrounding Arab countries, and the friction between Türkiye, Syria and Iraq in the border areas, which have brought serious security challenges to the Middle East.
The geopolitical contradictions within the Middle East region are also complex and intricate. There are territorial disputes, ethnic conflicts, and other issues among countries. For example, there are territorial disputes between Syria, Türkiye and Iraq in the border areas, and there are long-term struggles between Israel and Palestine over the ownership of Jerusalem and other places. These contradictions continue to escalate under the intervention of external forces, making the security situation in the Middle East more complex and volatile.
1.2 Manifestations of Religious and Ethnic Conflicts
The Middle East is the birthplace of the world’s three major religions – Judaism, Christianity, and Islam. Religious and ethnic issues are intertwined, forming a complex conflict situation.
The main religions in the Middle East include Islam, Judaism, and Christianity. Islam has a wide following in the Middle East and is the predominant religion in most Middle Eastern countries. Islam is divided into two major sects, Sunni and Shia, with differences in doctrine interpretation, religious rituals, and other aspects. These differences are sometimes exploited by political forces, leading to serious conflicts. Iran is a country dominated by Shia Muslims, while Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia are dominated by Sunni Muslims, and there is competition between the two factions in terms of regional influence.
Judaism is the state religion of Israel, and Israel is the only Jewish state in the world. There are significant differences between Jews and Arabs in terms of religious beliefs, cultural traditions, and other aspects, which have led to the long-term existence of the Israeli Palestinian conflict. Since the establishment of Israel, it has continuously expanded Jewish settlements, compressed the living space of Palestinians, and triggered strong resistance from the Palestinian people. The conflict between the two sides continues to escalate, causing a large number of casualties and property damage.
There are many nationalities in the Middle East, mainly Arabs, Persians, Turks, Kurds, etc. Kurds are an ancient ethnic group in the Middle East, distributed in Türkiye, Iran, Iraq, Syria and other countries, and have long pursued national autonomy and independence. The Kurdish issue has always been a sensitive issue in the Middle East. Conflicts often occur between the governments of Türkiye, Iran and other countries and Kurdish armed groups.
The historical roots of religious and ethnic conflicts in the Middle East are profound. Throughout history, there have been contradictions and conflicts between different religions and ethnic groups. As time goes by, these contradictions continue to intensify under the influence of external factors. The intervention of external forces has made religious and ethnic issues more complex. Some major countries support different religious and ethnic forces for their own interests, leading to escalating conflicts. Religious and ethnic conflicts have brought serious disasters to the Middle East region, causing a large number of casualties and property losses, disrupting regional stability and development, and posing a threat to world peace and security.
1.3 Impact of Resource Competition on Relationships
The Middle East region has abundant resources, especially oil resources, whose distribution is significantly uneven and has a profound impact on the relations and security situation among regional countries.
The oil resources in the Middle East are mainly distributed in the Persian Gulf and its coastal areas, with major oil producing countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates. The Ghawar oil field in Saudi Arabia is the world’s largest onshore oil field, with proven reserves of 11.2 billion tons. The abundant oil resources have brought huge economic benefits to these countries, but they have also become a focus of competition between nations.
The competition for resources has had multiple impacts on the relations between Middle Eastern countries. Firstly, the competition for resources has intensified the contradictions and conflicts between countries. Some countries are willing to resort to military means in order to compete for oil resources, leading to regional tensions. For example, during Saddam’s reign, Iraq attempted to control Kuwait’s oil resources through military means, which led to the Gulf War. There is also competition between Iran and countries such as Saudi Arabia in the development and export of oil resources, which to some extent affects the relationship between the two countries.
The competition for resources has also led to instability within the country. Some countries suffer from unfair resource allocation, leading to intensified conflicts between different regions and ethnic groups within the country. For example, after the collapse of the Gaddafi regime in Libya, various factions engaged in a struggle for oil resources, leading to the country falling into civil war.
The competition for resources has also affected the relationship between Middle Eastern countries and the international community. Some countries have established close relationships with major powers in order to obtain more oil resources, and these powers often use oil resources as a political tool to intervene in Middle Eastern countries. For example, the United States’ policies in the Middle East are largely influenced by oil resources, and the United States supports some Middle Eastern countries to maintain its oil interests in the region.
The competition for resources has made the security situation in the Middle East more complex and volatile. Conflicts between countries over resources not only result in casualties and property damage, but also disrupt regional stability and development, affecting world peace and security.
2、 The Status and Influence of Israel in the Middle East Region
2.1 Manifestation of Military Strength
Israel’s military power has significant influence in the Middle East and even globally. Its army is well-equipped with a series of advanced tanks, such as the Merkava 4 tank. This tank not only has powerful firepower and is equipped with 120mm smoothbore guns, but also emphasizes survival ability and excellent protective performance. Its composite armor and reactive armor can effectively resist enemy attacks.
In terms of air force, Israel is a close ally of the United States and has obtained a large number of advanced fighter jets. The F-35I Lightning II fighter jet is the flagship force of its Air Force. As the fifth generation stealth fighter, it has excellent stealth performance, supersonic cruise capability, and powerful situational awareness ability. It can move freely in enemy air defense systems and perform precise strike missions. The Israeli Air Force also has F-15I “Thunderbolt” fighter jets, F-16I “Storm” fighter jets, etc., which have proven their powerful combat capabilities in multiple actual battles.
Although the navy is relatively small in scale, it also has considerable strength. The Israeli Navy is equipped with the Sal 6 frigate, which integrates advanced radar and weapon systems and has strong air defense, anti-ship, and anti submarine capabilities. The “Barak” 8 air defense missile system it carries can effectively intercept airborne threats and ensure the safety of naval vessels.
In terms of military strategy, Israel has long pursued a “preemptive strike” strategy. Due to being surrounded by Arab countries and lacking strategic depth, Israel is well aware that it cannot defend passively in conflicts and must take the initiative to seize the opportunity. In multiple Middle Eastern wars, Israel has relied on this strategy to gain the initiative on the battlefield. Israel also attaches great importance to the research and innovation of military technology. Its military industry is developed and capable of independently developing and producing a large number of advanced weapons and equipment, thus ensuring the continuous improvement of military strength.
Israel’s military strength is an important guarantee for maintaining national security, but it has also brought enormous security pressure to neighboring countries, becoming one of the important factors contributing to the complexity of the security situation in the Middle East.
2.2 Manifestation of Political Influence
Israel’s political influence is mainly reflected in its foreign policy, relations with major powers, and role in international organizations.
In terms of foreign policy, Israel exhibits a combination of firmness and flexibility. On the one hand, Israel maintains a tough stance towards neighboring countries, especially Arab countries. On the issue of territorial disputes, Israel firmly upholds its own interests and continues to expand Jewish settlements, resulting in long-term unresolved conflicts with Palestine. When facing hostile countries such as Iran, Israel frequently takes military actions, such as airstrikes on Iranian targets in Syria, to contain Iran’s expanding influence in the Middle East. This tough policy has kept the situation in the Middle East tense for a long time, but it also demonstrates Israel’s firm determination to maintain national security.
On the other hand, Israel has also shown some flexibility in its foreign policy. In recent years, Israel has actively developed relations with Gulf Arab countries and, with the push of the United States, has normalized relations with countries such as the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. This diplomatic breakthrough will help Israel expand its diplomatic space in the Middle East, reduce the number of hostile countries, and improve its own security environment.
In terms of relations with major powers, Israel has a particularly close relationship with the United States. The United States is Israel’s most important ally, providing strong support to Israel in various fields such as politics, economy, and military. The United States provides significant military assistance to Israel every year to help maintain its military advantage. On the international stage, the United States often speaks out for Israel, supporting its position and actions. The relationship between Israel and the United States gives it a significant voice in the international community, which can to some extent influence the foreign policy of the United States.
Israel also actively exerts influence in international organizations. Although Israel is often criticized and opposed by Arab countries in international organizations such as the United Nations, it seeks support on some international issues by establishing close ties with other Western countries. For example, in the voting of United Nations resolutions on the Israeli Palestinian issue, Israel often receives support from some Western countries, thereby offsetting the pressure from Arab countries to some extent.
Israel’s political influence plays an important role in the Middle East, but its tough foreign policy and tense relations with some countries also pose challenges to regional peace and stability.
3、 Israel’s Specific Threat to the Security Situation in the Middle East
3.1 Impact of Military Operations
In recent years, Israel’s frequent military actions have had a huge impact on the security situation in the Middle East. In May 2021, a serious conflict erupted between Israel and Palestinian armed groups in the Gaza Strip. The Israeli army carried out large-scale airstrikes and shelling on the Gaza Strip, targeting Hamas military facilities, office buildings, residential areas, and more. Palestinian armed groups have also launched a large number of rockets into Israel. This conflict has resulted in hundreds of Palestinian deaths and thousands of injuries, as well as casualties and property damage in Israel. The conflict not only brought enormous suffering to the people on both sides, but also made the regional situation highly tense, triggering widespread attention and condemnation from the international community.
On October 7, 2023, Hamas launched the “Al Aqsa Floods” military operation, carrying out large-scale attacks on targets within Israel. Israel subsequently launched a large-scale military operation called “Iron Sword”, carrying out months of intense bombing and ground attacks on the Gaza Strip. Israel’s military actions have resulted in the destruction of a large amount of infrastructure in the Gaza Strip, causing countless civilians to be displaced and suffering heavy casualties. This conflict not only intensified the hatred between Palestine and Israel, but also triggered dissatisfaction and protests from neighboring Arab countries, leading to further deterioration of the regional situation.
Israel’s military actions often use the pretext of combating terrorism and maintaining national security, but its excessive use of force and causing a large number of innocent civilian casualties have seriously undermined regional stability. Israel’s military actions have made neighboring countries feel uneasy, and some countries are concerned that Israel’s military expansion will threaten their own security, thus strengthening military defenses and leading to an intensified regional arms race. In addition, Israel’s military actions have also affected the international community’s view on the Middle East issue, making it more difficult for the international community to solve the Middle East problem.
3.2 Impact of Nuclear Weapons Policy
As the only country in the Middle East that possesses nuclear weapons, Israel’s nuclear weapons policy poses a serious threat to the security landscape of the Middle East and neighboring countries.
Since its establishment, Israel has been secretly developing a nuclear weapons program. In the 1950s, Israel began building nuclear reactors with the help of France. In 1986, Israel’s nuclear weapons program was exposed to the world by its former nuclear scientist Mordecai Vanunu. Subsequently, despite international concern and condemnation of Israel’s nuclear weapons program, Israel has consistently responded with a policy of “nuclear ambiguity”, neither recognizing nor denying the possession of nuclear weapons.
Israel’s nuclear weapons policy has fundamentally changed the security landscape in the Middle East region. During the Cold War, the balance of power among the countries in the Middle East was relatively balanced, and there were no nuclear weapons present. However, with Israel possessing nuclear weapons, this balance has been disrupted. Israel’s nuclear weapons give it an absolute military advantage and can provide nuclear deterrence to neighboring countries. This has made neighboring countries extremely uneasy, and some countries have started seeking to develop their own nuclear weapons or seek protection from other major powers in response to Israel’s nuclear threat. For example, Iran has always been tough on the nuclear issue and has tense relations with Western countries such as the United States, which is partly related to Israel’s nuclear weapons policy.
Israel’s nuclear weapons policy has also exacerbated tensions in the Middle East region. The conflict between Israel and Arab countries is already very acute, and Israel’s possession of nuclear weapons makes this conflict even more complex. Arab countries are concerned that Israel may use nuclear weapons to threaten their security, and therefore take a tougher stance against Israel. This confrontation not only leads to further deterioration of the regional situation, but may also trigger a nuclear arms race, or even a nuclear war, posing a serious threat to peace and security in the entire Middle East region and the world.
3.3 Impact of territorial disputes
The territorial disputes between Israel and countries such as Palestine are one of the core issues that have long plagued the stability of the Middle East region.
The history of the Israeli Palestinian territorial dispute dates back to ancient times. At the end of the 19th century, the Zionist movement emerged, advocating for Jews to return to their homeland and establish a state. After World War I, the Ottoman Empire disintegrated and Palestine became a British mandate. Britain supports the establishment of a Jewish state in Palestine, but also needs to safeguard the interests of local Arabs. With the continuous increase of Jewish immigration, the conflict between Arabs and Jews gradually intensified. In 1947, the United Nations adopted the Partition Plan for Palestine, which stipulated the establishment of a Jewish state and an Arab state in the Palestinian territories. But this plan was strongly opposed by Arab countries, and after the establishment of Israel in 1948, multiple wars broke out between Arab countries and Israel.
Until now, the territorial conflict between Israel and Palestine remains unresolved. Israel continues to expand Jewish settlements in Palestinian territories, compressing the living space of Palestinians. The Jerusalem issue is also one of the focal points of the Israeli Palestinian territorial dispute. Israel has designated Jerusalem as its capital and continuously strengthened its management and control over East Jerusalem, which has caused strong dissatisfaction among the Palestinian people and the international community.
The territorial dispute between Israel and Palestine has had a serious impact on regional stability. Firstly, territorial disputes have led to continuous violent conflicts between Palestine and Israel. Palestinians often resort to violent means to confront Israel in order to fight for their territory and rights, while Israel uses tough measures to suppress them. This violent conflict not only caused a large number of casualties and property damage, but also made the conflict between Palestine and Israel more acute and difficult to reconcile.
The territorial dispute has also affected the relations between Middle Eastern countries. Some Arab countries support the Palestinian position and have tense relations with Israel. And some countries have developed relations with Israel for their own interests, which has also caused differences among Arab countries. For example, in recent years, Israel has normalized its relations with Gulf countries such as the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, which has caused dissatisfaction among other Arab countries and made the relationship between Middle Eastern countries more complex.
The territorial dispute also affects the international community’s resolution of the Middle East issue. The international community has been working hard to promote the Israeli Palestinian peace process, but due to the complexity of territorial issues, the progress of the peace process has been slow. Israel’s tough stance and continuous expansion of settlements have hindered international mediation efforts, and the prospects for peace in the Middle East remain uncertain.
4、 Measures taken by other Middle Eastern countries to address the threat posed by Israel
4.1 Iran’s Response Strategy
Iran has demonstrated a multidimensional and highly targeted strategy in responding to the Israeli threat. From a military perspective, Iran’s military strength in the Middle East cannot be underestimated. The military parade held by Iran in Tehran in 2023 showcased its formidable military strength. In the face of Israel’s military provocations, Iran dares to take decisive action, such as the large-scale airstrikes launched against Israel in April 2024, deploying hundreds of drones and missiles. Although most of them were intercepted by Israeli air defense systems, it also demonstrated Iran’s military determination and capabilities. Iran also possesses advanced missiles such as Fathe-1 and Mudstone, which have strong deterrence and can put enormous pressure on Israel’s air defense systems.
In terms of diplomatic strategy, Iran actively expands its international relations and maintains close ties with major powers such as Russia and China. Against the backdrop of severe sanctions imposed by the United States on Iran, Iran has eased external pressure to some extent through cooperation with these major powers, while also gaining support on the international stage. Iran also enhances its influence in the Middle East by supporting Shia organizations and exporting Islamic revolutionary ideology.
Iran plays a key role in the regional anti Israel alliance. As a country dominated by Shia Muslims, Iran actively supports anti Israel forces such as Syria and Hezbollah in Lebanon. By providing weapons, funding, and other support to these organizations, Iran has built an anti Israel network and formed a certain strategic encirclement of Israel. Iran has also actively voiced its support for Palestine’s position and engaged in confrontation with Israel on issues such as the Israeli Palestinian conflict.
However, Iran’s response strategy also faces some challenges. The sanctions imposed by Western countries such as the United States have dealt a heavy blow to Iran’s economy and affected the sustained development of its military power. Israel’s military advantage and the international community’s attention to the Iranian nuclear issue have also brought tremendous pressure to Iran. However, overall, Iran still has a certain degree of initiative in responding to the Israeli threat with its strong military power and flexible diplomatic strategy.
4.2 The role of the Arab League
The Arab League, abbreviated as AL, is an important regional international organization in the Middle East region. The Arab League was established on March 22, 1945, by representatives of seven Arab countries, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Yemen, who held a meeting in Cairo and declared its formation through the Arab League Treaty. At present, the Arab League has 22 member states.
The purpose of the Arab League is to strengthen close cooperation among member states, safeguard the independence and sovereignty of Arab countries, coordinate political, economic, cultural, and social affairs among each other, promote collective cooperation among Arab countries, and advance friendly cooperation between Arab countries and countries around the world. The Arab League has institutions such as the Council, Joint Defense Council, Economic Council, Social Affairs Council, and Cultural Council to achieve its goals in various fields.
The Arab League has played a certain role in responding to the Israeli threat. In the early days of Israel’s founding, Arab League member states united to confront Israel, attempting to prevent the establishment of a Jewish state. In various Middle East wars, Arab League countries have also coordinated to some extent to jointly respond to Israel’s military actions. The Arab League also supports Palestine’s position and opposes Israel’s expansionist actions through statements and diplomatic means.
However, with the changing international situation and increasing internal conflicts within the Arab League, its role in responding to the Israeli threat has weakened. There are differences in interests among member states within the Arab League, and some countries have normalized their relations with Israel, which makes it difficult for the Arab League to formulate a unified policy towards Israel. On some specific issues, the positions of member states of the Arab League are not consistent, which limits the decision-making and actions of the Arab League. However, as an important organization of Arab countries, the Arab League still has a certain influence in safeguarding the interests of Arab countries and promoting regional peace and stability.
4.3 Impact of Türkiye Israel relations
The relationship between Türkiye and Israel has undergone a complex evolution. In the early days of Israel’s founding, Türkiye established diplomatic relations with Israel and became one of the first Islamic countries to recognize Israel. During the Cold War, the two countries had close cooperation in politics, economy, military, and other fields in response to the threat posed by the Soviet Union. Türkiye and Israel have conducted extensive cooperation in intelligence sharing, military training and other aspects, and the relationship between the two countries was once relatively friendly.
However, as time passed, the contradictions between the two sides gradually became apparent. Especially on the Palestinian Israeli issue, Türkiye is dissatisfied with Israel’s hard line policy. In 2010, the Israeli army attacked Türkiye’s humanitarian aid fleet, causing the death of many Turks. This incident led to a sharp deterioration of bilateral relations. Türkiye recalled its ambassador to Israel and lowered the level of diplomatic relations with Israel. Since then, the relationship between Türkiye and Israel has been tense for a long time.
In recent years, the relationship between Türkiye and Israel has shown some signs of easing. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Türkiye and President Herzog of Israel talked on the phone for many times, and the two sides conducted negotiations on the normalization of relations. The Foreign Minister of Türkiye and the Foreign Minister of Israel also had their first communication in many years. However, this easing does not mean that the relationship between the two countries can quickly return to its previous state, as differences still exist on some core issues.
The relationship between Türkiye and Israel has an important impact on the regional situation. When the relationship between the two countries is tense, it will exacerbate the tension in the Middle East and cause anxiety in neighboring countries. As a regional power, Türkiye’s tough stance on Israel will inspire the morale of some Arab countries against Israel. When the relationship between the two countries is eased, it is conducive to promoting regional peace and stability, and creating favorable conditions for resolving the Middle East issue. The evolution of Türkiye Israel relations will also affect the strategic layout of major powers in the Middle East. The United States and other western countries hope that Türkiye will maintain good relations with Israel to safeguard its interests in the Middle East. The development of Türkiye Israel relations will continue to have a profound impact on the situation in the Middle East.
5、 The international community’s response to Israel’s threat to Middle East security
5.1 Position of the United Nations
As the most universal, representative, and authoritative international organization, the United Nations has always adhered to the purpose of maintaining international peace and security and promoting fairness and justice in addressing Israel’s threat to Middle East security.
In the conflict between Israel and Palestine, the United Nations has issued multiple statements condemning the violent actions of both sides and calling for an immediate cessation of hostilities. On September 18, 2024, the United Nations General Assembly passed a historic resolution condemning Israel’s occupation of Palestinian territories, which received 124 votes in favor and only 14 votes against, marking a new height of international dissatisfaction with Israel’s actions. The adoption of the resolution is a victory for the Palestinian people and brings new hope to the Israeli Palestinian peace process, but the path to achieving lasting peace is still full of challenges.
UN Secretary General Guterres emphasized at the Security Council’s open debate on the Israeli Palestinian issue on October 24, 2023, that Hamas’ attacks on Israel should be condemned, but “Hamas’ attacks did not emerge from a vacuum” and that Israel’s military actions have also caused a large number of innocent civilian casualties. The United Nations believes that Israel’s military actions and expansion of settlements seriously violate international law and humanitarian law, infringe upon the legitimate rights and interests of the Palestinian people, and exacerbate regional tensions.
In terms of action, the United Nations has also actively taken measures to alleviate the humanitarian crisis caused by the Israeli Palestinian conflict. The United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNHCR) provides basic living necessities such as food, medical care, and education for Palestinian refugees, while the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) also provides protection and assistance for Palestinian children. The United Nations is also actively promoting peace negotiations between Palestine and Israel, calling on the international community to contribute to the realization of the two-state solution between Palestine and Israel.
However, the United Nations also faces some difficulties in addressing Israel’s threat to Middle East security. There are differences among the permanent members of the Security Council on some key issues, and the United States has repeatedly used its veto power to prevent the Security Council from passing resolutions that are unfavorable to Israel, which has restricted the actions of the United Nations. Nevertheless, the United Nations remains an important force in promoting the Israeli Palestinian peace process and maintaining security in the Middle East region.
5.2 Views of European Countries
As important members of the international community, European countries have complex and diverse attitudes and policies towards the conflict between Israel and Palestine.
In the early stages of the Israeli Palestinian conflict, European countries generally supported Israel, believing that Israel had the right to defend itself against Hamas’ terrorist attacks. But as the conflict continues to escalate, Israel’s military actions have caused a large number of Palestinian civilian casualties, and the position of European countries is beginning to change.
Some European countries have begun to explicitly oppose Israel’s military actions and call on Israel to immediately cease its attacks on the Gaza Strip. EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Borrell issued a statement condemning Israel’s “drip irrigation aid” to Gaza and inhumane killing of civilians after Israel launched a military operation in the southern Gaza city of Rafa, pointing out that this aid method has resulted in a large number of civilian deaths. European powers such as France and Germany have also called on Israel to cease military actions and resolve the conflict through political means.
There are also differences within European countries regarding their stance and policies towards Israel. Some countries have close economic and military cooperation with Israel and are unwilling to overly blame Israel. Some countries, on the other hand, are under pressure from domestic citizens and public opinion, expressing strong dissatisfaction with Israel’s actions. The differences among European countries have also to some extent affected the EU’s unified action on the Israeli Palestinian issue.
European countries also face some challenges when dealing with the Israeli Palestinian conflict. On the one hand, European countries need to maintain their relationship with the United States. As Israel’s largest ally, the United States has a certain influence on the position of European countries on the Israeli Palestinian issue. On the other hand, European countries are also facing pressure from domestic citizens and public opinion, with people expressing sympathy for the plight of the Palestinian people and demanding that the government take action to support Palestine.
However, European countries still have some influence in promoting the Israeli Palestinian peace process. European countries can contribute to easing the Israeli Palestinian conflict and promoting peace negotiations through economic assistance, political mediation, and other means. European countries can also strengthen cooperation with the international community to jointly promote the resolution of the Israeli Palestinian issue and maintain peace and stability in the Middle East region.
5.3 The Role of Russia
As a world power and a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, Russia plays an indispensable role in Middle East security affairs.
In the conflict between Israel and Palestine, Russia has always advocated resolving the dispute through political means and opposed any form of violence. Russia believes that Israel’s military actions and expansion of settlements seriously violate international law and humanitarian law, infringe upon the legitimate rights and interests of the Palestinian people, and exacerbate regional tensions. Russia calls on the international community to work together to promote peace negotiations between Palestine and Israel and achieve a two-state solution.
In practical actions, Russia also actively participates in security affairs in the Middle East region. Russia maintains close relations with countries such as Syria and Iran, and by supporting these countries, it has to some extent formed a balance against Israel. Russia has achieved significant results in its counter-terrorism operations in Syria, maintaining national stability and contributing to the fight against terrorism in the Middle East. Russia is also actively promoting political reconciliation in the Middle East, calling on all parties to resolve conflicts and contradictions in the region through dialogue and consultation.
Russia’s position and actions in Middle East security affairs have had a significant impact on the regional situation. Russia’s intervention has made the situation in the Middle East more complex and volatile. On the one hand, Russia’s support has given countries such as Syria and Iran more confidence in their confrontation with Israel, enhancing their military strength and diplomatic influence. On the other hand, Russia’s intervention has also raised concerns among Western countries such as the United States, exacerbating international divisions on the Middle East issue.
However, Russia’s role in Middle East security affairs also has its limitations. Russia’s economic strength is relatively weak, making it difficult to provide more economic support to Middle Eastern countries. Meanwhile, Russia is also facing sanctions and pressure from Western countries such as the United States, which to some extent limits its role in the Middle East. Nevertheless, Russia remains an undeniable force in Middle East security affairs, and its position and actions have a significant impact on peace and stability in the region.
6、 Countries or regions in the Middle East that are relatively safe under the threat of Israel
6.1 Reasons for Qatar’s relative security
Qatar’s ability to maintain relative security in the Middle East under the threat of Israel is the result of multiple factors working together. Geographically speaking, Qatar is located on the Qatar Peninsula on the southwest coast of the Persian Gulf. Although its area is not large, only about 11500 square kilometers, it has a relatively independent geographical location and fewer geopolitical conflict points with neighboring countries, unlike Syria, Lebanon and other countries that are in sensitive areas where multiple forces are intertwined.
In terms of foreign policy, Qatar pursues a flexible and pragmatic strategy. It maintains close relations with Western countries such as the United States, which has military bases in Qatar, providing Qatar with certain security guarantees and enabling it to gain support from major powers in regional conflicts. At the same time, Qatar also attaches great importance to developing relations with neighboring Arab countries and regional powers such as Iran, balancing various forces through diplomatic means, and avoiding being caught in the vortex of regional conflicts.
Qatar’s economic strength is extremely strong, and its abundant oil and gas resources make it one of the wealthiest countries in the world. In 2022, Qatar’s per capita GDP reached 87000 US dollars, ranking among the top in the world. A strong economic foundation gives Qatar the strength to develop military power and maintain national security. Qatar has purchased advanced weapons and equipment from countries such as the United States, such as F-15QA fighter jets, to enhance its defense capabilities. Moreover, economic prosperity has enabled the Qatari government to appease the people through high welfare policies, reduce social conflicts and instability factors, and create favorable conditions for national stability.
Qatar also actively plays a role on the international stage, enhancing its international influence through hosting large-scale international events such as the World Cup, which also helps it gain more support and protection in the international community.
6.2 Impact of UAE Israel Relations
The establishment of diplomatic relations between the United Arab Emirates and Israel has had a profound impact on the Middle East region and has also had multiple effects on the UAE’s own security.
From the perspective of establishing diplomatic relations, the normalization of relations between the United Arab Emirates and Israel is influenced by complex international and regional factors. The strategic adjustment of the United States in the Middle East is attempting to maintain its influence in the region by promoting Arab Israeli reconciliation and forming a political military alliance against Iran, which is an important external driving force. The United Arab Emirates is also facing pressure from regional powers such as Iran, and establishing diplomatic relations with Israel can to some extent enhance its ability to confront Iran. Moreover, with the changing international situation, the UAE realizes that developing relations with Israel is beneficial for expanding cooperation in areas such as economy and technology, bringing new opportunities for national development.
The establishment of diplomatic relations between the United Arab Emirates and Israel has both positive impacts and potential risks for its security. On the positive side, the United Arab Emirates and Israel have cooperated in the field of security, strengthening exchanges in intelligence sharing, counter-terrorism, and other areas, which will help the UAE enhance its ability to respond to regional security threats. Israel’s advanced military technology and security experience can provide support to the United Arab Emirates and enhance its defense capabilities.
But this move has also sparked divisions within the Arab world, with some Arab countries expressing dissatisfaction, which may put pressure on the UAE in regional diplomacy. Moreover, the establishment of diplomatic relations between the United Arab Emirates and Israel has weakened the unity of Arab countries on the Israeli Palestinian issue, making the situation of Palestine even more unfavorable. This may trigger dissatisfaction among some Arab people and have a certain impact on the social stability of the UAE.
6.3 Stable factors in Gulf countries such as Kuwait
Kuwait and other Gulf countries are able to maintain stability in the complex and ever-changing Middle East region due to their unique political, economic, and diplomatic factors.
In terms of politics, most of these countries implement monarchical autocratic regimes. The six Arab countries in the Persian Gulf, led by Saudi Arabia, although this political system is considered relatively ancient in today’s world, have a profound historical and cultural foundation in the Gulf region. Islamic culture dominates in these countries, and its exclusiveness to some extent prevents the invasion of foreign democratic ideas, providing cultural soil for the continuation of monarchies. Moreover, the royal families of these countries use wealth such as oil revenue to purchase welfare benefits from the people, which helps them maintain a high level of acceptance of the existing political system in a relatively affluent life, thereby reducing the possibility of social unrest.
Economically, abundant oil resources are the key to the stable development of these countries. Gulf countries have the world’s largest oil reserves and production, and oil exports have brought huge wealth to the country. The oil industry in countries such as Kuwait and Saudi Arabia is highly developed and serves as the backbone of the national economy. These countries have utilized oil revenues to develop infrastructure, education, healthcare, and other social services, improving the living standards of their people and enhancing national cohesion and stability.
In diplomacy, Gulf countries focus on balancing various forces. They maintain close relations with Western countries such as the United States, which has an important military presence in the Gulf region and provides certain security protection for these countries. At the same time, Gulf countries are actively developing relations with neighboring Arab countries and regional powers such as Iran, resolving conflicts through diplomatic means, and avoiding falling into regional conflicts. For example, on the Iranian nuclear issue, Gulf countries are concerned about their own security while avoiding excessive escalation of relations with Iran, striving to find a balance between maintaining regional stability and their own security. This flexible diplomatic strategy has created a relatively stable external environment for Gulf countries, which is conducive to their stable development.
7、 Summary and Prospect
7.1 Complexity of Security Issues in the Middle East Region
The security issues in the Middle East are like a tangled mess, with an unimaginable level of complexity. From a geopolitical perspective, the Middle East is located at the intersection of Asia, Europe, and Africa, connecting the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, controlling numerous important maritime routes, and holds an extremely important strategic position. The great powers are constantly playing this game, with fierce competition among European powers throughout history. After World War II, the United States deeply intervened, and Russia also attempted to exert influence. This power struggle has made the regional situation tense for a long time.
Religious and ethnic conflicts are like sharp thorns, deeply piercing into the body of the Middle East. This is the birthplace of Judaism, Christianity, and Islam, with significant differences in religious beliefs and cultural traditions. Jews and Arabs have been constantly in conflict over issues such as territory and resources, and the Kurdish people’s pursuit of national autonomy and independence has also sparked many disputes. The intense factional struggles within the religion, and the opposition between Sunni and Shia sects, are often exploited by political forces, exacerbating regional divisions.
Resource competition is also an important driving force behind security issues. The Middle East has abundant oil resources, but their distribution is extremely uneven, mainly concentrated in the Persian Gulf and its coastal areas. Countries compete for oil resources, wage wars, or resort to other intense means, leading to tense relations between nations and internal conflicts due to unequal distribution of resources.
The threat from Israel further exacerbates the security issues in the Middle East. Its strong military power, possession of nuclear weapons, and territorial disputes with neighboring countries have all had a huge impact on regional stability. Israel’s frequent military actions have caused dissatisfaction and anxiety among neighboring countries. The existence of nuclear weapons has disrupted the balance of power in the region, and territorial disputes are at the core of the Israeli Palestinian conflict, making it difficult to reconcile.
The resolution of security issues in the Middle East is extremely difficult. Various contradictions are intertwined and complex, and have been subject to external intervention for a long time. There is a lack of effective security cooperation mechanisms and strategic mutual trust among internal countries. To achieve peace and stability in the Middle East region, all parties need to make tremendous efforts and overcome numerous difficulties.
7.2 Call for Dialogue and Cooperation to Promote Peace
In the Middle East, a land full of conflicts and turmoil, dialogue and cooperation are the necessary path to peace. Political dialogue is the key to resolving the Middle East issue, and for the core contradiction in the Israeli Palestinian conflict, we must adhere to the ‘two-state solution’. The international community should actively promote the return of both Palestine and Israel to the negotiating table, establish an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital and full sovereignty based on the 1967 borders, achieve peaceful coexistence between Palestine and Israel, and fundamentally eliminate the root causes of regional tension. The President of the 79th United Nations General Assembly, Philemon Young, has explicitly stated that only through a “two-state solution” to resolve the Israeli Palestinian conflict can lasting peace and stability be achieved in Palestine and the Middle East.
Middle Eastern countries should also strengthen cooperation. At the beginning of the new year in 2022, foreign ministers from six Middle Eastern countries visited China one after another, opening up a new chapter in China’s Middle East diplomacy. China and Middle Eastern countries have carried out fruitful cooperation in various fields, bringing tangible benefits to their respective peoples. This reflects the possibility of promoting regional peace and development through cooperation. Middle Eastern countries can learn from this cooperation model, strengthen exchanges and cooperation in areas such as economy, culture, and security, and jointly address the challenges faced by the region.
The international community also needs to play an active role and contribute to peace and stability in the Middle East region. The United Nations should continue to play a role in maintaining international peace and security, promoting peace negotiations between Palestine and Israel, and strengthening humanitarian assistance to Palestine. European countries can leverage their economic and political advantages to provide support for easing the Israeli Palestinian conflict and promoting peace negotiations between the two countries. Russia and other major countries should also actively participate in security affairs in the Middle East, and promote regional political reconciliation through political mediation and other means.
To promote peace and stability in the Middle East, all parties need to abandon past grievances and engage in dialogue and cooperation with an open and inclusive attitude. Only through joint efforts can the Middle East region break free from the shadow of conflict and move towards a future of peace and prosperity, allowing the people of the Middle East to have a life free from fear.
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