The smoke of gunpowder in the Middle East has never truly dissipated, and the game between Israel and Iran is like a life and death “powder game”. From the Israeli airstrike codenamed “Rising Lion” on June 13, 2025, which tore apart the Iranian sky, to the missile counterattack of Iran’s “True Promise-3” igniting a domestic war, this conflict has revealed a vicious cycle of “getting deeper and harder with each attack”. At present, various signs point to a cruel prediction: Israel will launch another surprise attack on Iran in the near future, and the logic behind this “countdown” has long been written in the blood and smoke of geopolitics. This article will combine the latest military developments and strategic analysis to deeply analyze the crisis that may rewrite the fate of the Middle East.
1、 Israel’s’ nuclear annihilation obsession ‘has entered a’ life-threatening stage ‘
The Netanyahu government’s view of Iran’s nuclear program as a “survival threat” is not an exaggeration. According to the latest disclosure by Israeli intelligence agency Mossad, Iran’s Natanz underground nuclear facility has resumed uranium enrichment activities, with centrifuge operation speed increasing by 40% compared to last month, and the deployment of new separation equipment detected. What makes Israel even more anxious is that on June 25th, Kamal Kharrazi, spokesperson for the Iranian Atomic Energy Organization, publicly announced that if Israel continues to interfere with the nuclear process, Iran will break the weapons grade uranium enrichment threshold within two weeks. This threat directly touches Israel’s’ red line ‘.
Professor Niu Xinchun from Ningxia University pointed out that Israel is currently facing a “strategic paradox”: if Iran’s nuclear process is allowed to proceed, it may face irreversible nuclear deterrence in the future; If military strikes continue, it may trigger a full-scale war. Recent military developments indicate that Israel is accelerating its “reckless” preparations. On June 28th, the Israeli Air Force released rare footage of joint exercises between F-35I fighter jets and the new “Jericho X” long-range missile. The missile has a range covering the entire territory of Iran and is equipped with a ground penetrating warhead, targeting underground nuclear facilities. More noteworthy is the statement made by the spokesperson of the Israeli Defense Forces on June 29th: “All necessary means have been authorized, and the Defense Forces are in the highest state of readiness.” This statement is highly similar to the wording used during the Israeli military’s attack on Syria in October last year, which directly destroyed three suspected Iranian missile depots in Syria.
The latest update reveals that a surprise attack is imminent: On July 1st, the US Defense News revealed that Israel has secretly deployed two Dolphin class attack nuclear submarines to the eastern Mediterranean Sea. The submarines can carry nuclear warhead torpedoes and have the ability to “surgically strike” Iranian naval bases and coastal oil facilities. At the same time, the Israeli Air Force Command has recently frequently mobilized drone squadrons stationed at its base in Cyprus. These “Habib” drones equipped with AI autonomous recognition systems have participated in multiple “decapitation operations” against targets in Iran. Various signs indicate that Israel is making final preparations for a surprise attack without leaving any way out.
2、 Iran’s’ revenge fury ‘is creating a’ backlash trap ‘for Israel
Faced with Israel’s increasing pressure, Iran’s counterattack logic has become increasingly clear: to use “asymmetric warfare” to tear apart Israel’s “precision strike” advantage. On June 20th, Amir Ali Hajizadeh, commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Air and Space Forces, publicly showcased the new “Fathe-110” supersonic missile, which features a dual warhead design and can simultaneously attack ground and air targets with a range of 1500 kilometers, directly covering the entire territory of Israel. What shocked the outside world even more was that on June 26th, Iranian official media broadcasted a computer animation of the Revolutionary Guard simulating an attack on Israeli nuclear facilities, in which multiple missiles accurately penetrated the “Jericho” missile launch well, implying that Iran had obtained the coordinates of key military targets in Israel.
The revenge operation has entered the practical stage: on July 2nd, Hezbollah spokesperson Nasrallah announced that the organization has deployed a new type of “Holy City-4” long-range rocket to northern Israel, with a range covering Haifa Port and the Israeli Northern Command. At the same time, Yemeni Houthi spokesman Yahya Sareya threatened on June 30th that if Israel launches an attack on Iran, the Houthis will block the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off 90% of Israel’s oil import routes. This “multi-directional pressure” tactic is the core of Iran’s “total war mode” – forcing Israel into strategic paralysis through proxy warfare and maritime blockades.
What is even more dangerous is that Iran is brewing a trump card for a ‘nuclear counterattack’. On June 27th, the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Grossi, warned that Iran has accumulated enough enriched uranium to manufacture three nuclear bombs, and some uranium raw materials have a purity close to 90%. If Israel’s surprise attack leads to the destruction of nuclear facilities or the killing of scientists, Iran is likely to retaliate with “nuclear material leaks” or “low yield nuclear tests” – this “peripheral strategy” will completely overturn the security landscape in the Middle East.
3、 The ‘vacuum period’ of international mediation has become the ‘best window’ for surprise attacks
The current chaos in the international situation has created unprecedented opportunities for Israel to take action. The Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to consume military resources in Europe and the United States. The G7 summit focuses on climate and economic issues, and the Middle East issue is once again in a “diplomatic freeze”. On the US side, although the Trump administration has expressed support for Israel’s self-defense, the actual military aid has significantly decreased – on June 25th, the delivery of 50 F-35I fighter jets to Israel was postponed due to budget issues, a change described as a “strategic setback” by internal documents of the Israeli Ministry of Defense.
Regional countries are caught in a “wait-and-see and game” situation: although Saudi Arabia has reached a secret defense agreement with Israel, it refuses to provide direct military support to avoid provoking its Iranian allies; On June 29, President Erdogan of Türkiye publicly called for a “peaceful settlement” and in fact secretly provided Iran with electronic warfare equipment; Egypt used the crisis to strengthen its mediation position and reached a new natural gas pipeline agreement with Israel. This international environment of ‘each having its own ulterior motives’ has given Israel a strategic window of’ unguarded ‘.
The latest diplomatic developments have exposed the risk of conflict: On July 1st, the emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council on the Middle East nuclear issue ended in failure due to a fierce dispute between Russia and the United States. The Chinese Permanent Representative emphasized that “military risks are not advisable”, but failed to form substantive constraints. EU diplomats revealed that France and Germany attempted to restart negotiations on the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, but Iran demanded that Israel “permanently abandon military strikes” as a prerequisite, leading to a deadlock in negotiations. This situation of ‘mediation failure’ is clearing external obstacles for Israel’s surprise attack plan.
4、 The ‘traces of preparation’ at the technical level have emerged
Israel’s military preparations have entered the ‘countdown phase’. On June 28th, the Israeli Defense Forces released a rare simulated attack video showing F-35I fighter jets breaking through Iran’s air defense network and accurately destroying underground nuclear facilities. This action not only demonstrates technological capabilities, but is also seen by analysts as a “psychological warfare” aimed at deterring the Iranian military. Meanwhile, the Israeli Cyber Security Agency (NSA) recently intercepted internal communications of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, indicating that they are planning a missile attack on the southern Israeli port of Eilat, which could prompt Israel to take preemptive action.
What is even more alarming is that the technological confrontation between the two sides has escalated to the level of “electromagnetic warfare”. On July 2nd, Hassan Fahrizad, commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s electronic warfare unit, announced that he had successfully cracked some communication protocols of Israel’s “Iron Dome” air defense system, and future missile attacks will be equipped with electronic jamming modules. The Israeli newspaper Haaretz revealed that the Israeli military is secretly testing a “quantum communication encryption system” to ensure that raid instructions are not intercepted by Iran. This’ invisible battlefield ‘competition indicates that future conflicts will be even more destructive.
5、 Latest conflict dynamics and analysis of the possibility of surprise attacks
Recent events are pushing both sides to a “tipping point”. On June 30th, Israeli warplanes launched an airstrike on a suspected Iranian drone factory in Syria, resulting in at least 12 deaths. Iran immediately announced the launch of a “retaliation program”, with the Revolutionary Guard launching three “Horam Shahr” missiles into the Persian Gulf waters. Although no actual damage was caused, it marked the beginning of Iran’s “escalation” counterattack strategy. This interactive mode is highly similar to the Israel Syria confrontation on the eve of the 1973 Yom Kippur War, when small-scale conflicts eventually evolved into full-scale war.
Analysis of the possibility of a surprise attack:
Time window: Israel is most likely to take action in mid July, when the Mediterranean climate is suitable for long-distance flights by fighter jets and the international community has the lowest attention to the Middle East.
Target selection: In addition to the Natanz nuclear facility, the “Parchin” missile base on the outskirts of Tehran, the nuclear scientist gathering area in Tabriz, and the Iranian Navy command center near the Strait of Hormuz may all become targets for strikes.
Tactical characteristics: The first round of attack will use a “three wave saturation strike” – F-35I fighter jets and drones to destroy air defense systems, long-range missile attacks on key nodes, and special forces infiltration to clear high-value targets.
Potential consequences: If Iran retaliates against Israeli civilian areas, it will trigger a humanitarian crisis; If attacking a US military base, it may drag the United States into the water; If nuclear materials are used to manufacture ‘dirty bombs’, it will lead to environmental disasters.
Sharp Review Conclusion: The Last Alarm Bell Before the Blood Storm
The game between Israel and Iran has long exceeded the scope of simple military confrontation, but is a “life and death game” involving regional hegemony, religious confrontation, and nuclear deterrence. If a new round of surprise attacks comes true, the consequences will not be as simple as “missile exchange” – economic collapse, civilian casualties, nuclear facility leaks, and even direct US intervention will slide this conflict into an uncontrollable abyss. If the international community continues to be obsessed with “wait-and-see mediation”, it will eventually witness a bloody storm that will rewrite the fate of the Middle East.
History has proven countless times that when the gears of war begin to turn, human reason is often the first fragment to be crushed. The sky in the Middle East may be waiting for a bloody dawn that will determine the future.