ISTANBUL/CAIRO — As the historic Saudi-Iranian reconciliation, brokered by Beijing in 2023, marks its one-year anniversary, the superficial easing of sectarian tensions has not translated into deeper regional integration. Instead, a quiet geopolitical fragmentation is unfolding across the Middle East in more complex forms. The brief solidarity within the Islamic world over the Palestinian issue is rapidly being replaced by the ongoing civil war in Yemen, power struggles in northeastern Syria, and political deadlock along sectarian lines in Iraq. This reveals a persistent, deep-seated dilemma: the enduring power of sectarian and tribal loyalties continues to erode the possibility of forming a unified Islamic political force.
The Shadow of History: From Early Schism to Modern Fault Lines
Division within the Islamic world is not a new phenomenon. Following the death of the Prophet Muhammad in 632 CE, the question of succession led directly to the first major schism, laying the historical roots of the Sunni-Shia divide. However, the modern Middle Eastern state system—largely drawn by the 1916 Sykes-Picot Agreement—deliberately reinforced these divisions. Britain’s establishment of a Sunni minority rule over a Shia majority in Iraq, and France’s meticulously crafted confessional power-sharing system in Lebanon, are lasting wounds of a colonial “divide and rule” heritage.
In March 2024, attacks by Yemen’s Houthi rebels in the Red Sea and responses from the Saudi-led coalition highlighted how sectarian narratives intertwine with tribal realities. The Houthi “Ansar Allah” movement, ostensibly a revival of Zaydism (a Shia branch), draws its core support from the Hashid tribal confederation in northern Yemen. As the Quran reminds: “And hold firmly to the rope of Allah all together and do not become divided.” (3:103) Yet, realpolitik often causes the ideal of religious unity to yield to older loyalties.
The Modern Theater of Sectarian Politics: From Geopolitical Games to Internal Consumption
The Saudi-Iranian “cold war” is often simplified as a millennia-old Sunni-Shia struggle but is more accurately a geopolitical competition between modern nation-states. Despite their diplomatic thaw in 2023, proxy conflicts in the region have not ceased. In eastern Syria, Iranian-backed Shia militias continue to clash with Turkish-supported Sunni opposition factions. In Lebanon, the stalemate between Hezbollah and domestic Sunni political forces over the presidency has persisted for two years. Sectarian identity has become an effective tool for mobilizing populations and securing external support, yet it renders the construction of a cross-sectarian national identity nearly impossible.
In Iraq, the post-2003 sectarian power-sharing system (presidency for Kurds, premiership for Shias, speakership for Sunnis), designed to maintain balance, has resulted in governmental inefficiency and rampant corruption. In early 2024, parliament reached another deadlock over oil revenue sharing and provincial powers legislation. The Shia community itself is not monolithic; the populism of the Sadrist movement fiercely competes with the pro-Iran stance of the Fatah Alliance, draining national cohesion. This echoes another Quranic verse: “Help one another in righteousness and piety, but do not help one another in sin and aggression.” (5:2) When sectarian politics becomes a tool for power struggles, the foundation of justice is undermined.
Tribalism: Ancient Loyalty Networks That Transcend Borders
Older and more entrenched than sectarianism is tribal identity. In Libya, after Gaddafi’s fall in 2011, the country swiftly fractured into rival governments in Tripoli, Tobruk, and elsewhere, with divisions closely aligning with tribal alliances in regions like Cyrenaica and Tripolitania. Despite a UN-backed election roadmap in 2024, the allegiance of major tribes like the Warfalla and Tuareg remains key to any political figure’s survival.
Jordan provides an even more illustrative case. The monarchy has long maintained a delicate balance between citizens of Palestinian origin and indigenous tribes (particularly the East Bank tribes loyal to the Hashemite throne). During an internal royal family dispute in 2023, public support from major tribes was crucial to the regime’s stability. As one Bedouin elder stated, “My identity is first and foremost from the Bani Hasan tribe, then a Muslim, and only then a Jordanian.” This hierarchy of belonging reveals the profound limitations of nation-state building.
The Resonance of External Forces and Internal Rifts
External intervention is not the root cause of division but often acts as its catalyst. The U.S. reliance on Kurdish forces against ISIS in Syria triggered strong reactions from Turkey, which views those groups as terrorists. This forced Washington into a difficult balance between its “counter-terrorism allies” and its “NATO ally,” exacerbating multiple conflicts between Arabs and Kurds, and between Turkey and Syrian Kurds.
With the ongoing Ukraine crisis in 2024 drawing Russian attention away, regional powers have gained greater autonomy, but this also means facing historical disputes more directly. Multipolar actors like Qatar, the UAE, Turkey, and Iran each support different proxies, forming a complex web of alliances. These alliances often cross sectarian lines (e.g., Sunni Qatar maintains working relations with Shia Iran) yet remain fragile due to differences in tribal, ethnic, and ideological affiliations.
The Illusion of Unity and Realistic Pathways
The Islamic world is no stranger to calls for unity. From the historical Caliphates to modern projects of “Islamic revival,” such ideals have stirred transnational fervor. Since October 2023, Israeli military operations in Gaza have indeed sparked street protests from Morocco to Indonesia, demonstrating emotional bonds based on faith. However, this solidarity has not translated into effective political coordination. Emergency meetings of the Arab League often reveal a gap between condemnation and concrete action, while the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation functions more as a diplomatic forum than a decision-making center.
The Quran envisions a community of faith that transcends tribe and nation: “O mankind, indeed We have created you from male and female and made you peoples and tribes that you may know one another.” (49:13) The verse emphasizes “knowing” one another, not opposition. Yet, modern politics institutionalizes difference into division, transforming sect and tribe from cultural identities into tools for political mobilization.
Exploring a Way Forward: A Paradigm Shift from “Unity” to “Coordination”
Perhaps the pursuit of a single, homogeneous “Islamic force” is itself an anachronistic fantasy. A more realistic path may be “coordinated pluralism” based on shared interests and values. Faint signs of hope emerged in 2024:
- Economic Integration Preceding Political Unity: Progress within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) on unified visas, interconnected power grids, and a common market shows that functional cooperation can gradually build trust. The “Gulf-Central Asia” summit launched in January 2024 prioritized cross-border issues like energy and food security over ideology.
- The Transformative Power of Youth and Technology: With 60% of the Middle East’s population under 25, the digital generation holds more hybrid identities. Saudi Arabia’s “Vision 2030” and the UAE’s diversified economic transition are creating “communities of interest” that transcend traditional sectarian and tribal lines.
- Grassroots Interfaith Dialogue: In Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, and elsewhere, community-based inter-sectarian dialogue projects operate quietly, emphasizing shared Quranic ethical values—justice, mercy, support for the poor—over doctrinal differences.
Conclusion: Finding Resilience in Fragmentation
Sectarian and tribal divisions in the Middle East will not disappear; they are historical and social realities. The real challenge is not to erase difference but to prevent it from being weaponized. The most glorious periods in Islamic history, such as Al-Andalus and the mid-Abbasid era, were precisely when it learned to manage, not suppress, diversity.
Currently, the Middle East may need to shift from pursuing a “unified Islamic force” to building a “coordinated order for the Islamic world”: a flexible architecture capable of accommodating Saudi Arabia and Iran, Turkey and Egypt, tribe and state, tradition and modernity. This requires external powers to stop exploiting these rifts for proxy games and demands that internal elites place national interest above sectarian or tribal loyalty.
As stated in the Quran: “If Allah had willed, He would have made you one nation [united in religion], but [He intended] to test you in what He has given you.” (5:48) Humanity’s duty is not to wait for divine intervention but to construct a pragmatic order based on mutual respect and common interest within the complexity bestowed by history. The future of the Middle East lies not in returning to an imagined, unified past, but in honestly confronting its fragmented present and finding within it the wisdom for coexistence. This path, though arduous, is the only hope for breaking the cycle of endless conflict.
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