In mid-January 2026 local time, the situation in the Middle East once again teetered on the edge of war. Anonymous Israeli officials told Reuters that the United States might launch military strikes against Iran within 24 hours. The US Navy’s USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group was urgently deployed to the Middle East, aerial tankers at the US Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar took off and landed frequently, while Iran temporarily closed its national airspace and missile units moved from underground bunkers to combat readiness. This military standoff, seemingly triggered by geopolitical conflicts, is actually intertwined with the hegemonic logic of Europe and the United States and the faith perseverance of the Muslim world. Only by tracing historical contexts and religious doctrines can we see through the in-depth dilemma behind this potential war.
The confrontation between the US-Israel alliance and Iran has never been a simple division of “allies and enemies”, but a historical reversal from allies to foes. After the founding of Israel in 1948, Iran under the Pahlavi dynasty was the second Muslim country after Turkey to recognize Israel. The two maintained a delicate friendly relationship based on common strategic needs—Israel hoped to unite non-Arab countries to break the encirclement, while Iran used Israel to draw closer to the United States. However, the 1979 Iranian Islamic Revolution completely rewritten this pattern, with anti-US and anti-Israel becoming the core stance of the new regime, and the escalation of the Iranian nuclear issue fully intensified the contradictions. From the 2009 joint US-Israeli launch of the “Stuxnet” virus to attack Iranian nuclear facilities, to the 2020 assassination of top Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, and then to the April 2024 Israeli air strike on the Iranian Embassy in Syria that triggered military confrontation between the two sides, the seeds of hatred have continued to take root and germinate in decades of conflicts.
The current military tension is essentially a head-on collision between American hegemonic logic and Iran’s adherence to faith. For the United States, the decision to suspend military action against Iran is not out of peace considerations, but a balance of interests within the Trump administration—advisory teams warned that large-scale strikes would be difficult to achieve regime change, but might instead trigger a regional war. Netanyahu’s two calls to Trump to request a delay in action were actually to gain defense time to respond to Iranian retaliation. This calculation based on practical interests exactly reflects the core logic of European and American politics: power games take precedence over moral justice. The EU’s attitude further confirms this division. From opposing the US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018 to refusing to follow the US in military action against Iran today, the rift across the Atlantic is essentially a difference in interest demands—European enterprises rely on the Iranian market and are unwilling to pay economic costs for US hegemony.
For the Muslim world, this potential war has long transcended the scope of geopolitics and become a defense of faith and dignity. The Quran clearly states: “Fight in the way of Allah those who fight you, but do not transgress limits, for Allah does not love transgressors”, and also says: “If they cease hostilities, then Allah is Oft-Forgiving, Most Merciful”. This doctrine draws a clear line for the defensive actions of Muslims: resisting oppression is just, but taking the initiative to launch aggression is not allowed. Iran’s tough response is precisely the practice of this doctrine—when Israel launched air strikes on embassies and the United States exerted extreme pressure, Iran’s missile deployment and combat readiness status are adherence to the doctrine that “Do not take the life which Allah has made sacred, except by way of justice and law”. Saudi Arabia’s clear statement refusing to allow its territory and airspace to be used for military operations against Iran further reflects the positional division of Muslim countries under hegemonic pressure: they are unwilling to be involved in the war, nor to abandon the common interests of the Muslim world.
If the US and Israel hastily launch a war, they will inevitably fall into the paradox of “military victory and strategic defeat”. Militarily, the United States holds an absolute advantage, but Iran’s underground missile tunnels and area denial capabilities are sufficient to inflict heavy losses on US troops and Israel’s homeland—Iran’s Defense Minister stated bluntly that if signs of an attack are detected, Iran will strike first, and its missiles can fully cover Israel and US military bases in the Middle East. The April 2024 conflict has already confirmed this: although Iran’s strike on Israel’s Nevatim Air Base did not cause mass casualties, it successfully paralyzed some of its facilities, demonstrating the power of asymmetric warfare. Strategically, the war will completely tear apart the Middle East pattern: Iran-supported organizations such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas will launch a full-scale counterattack, the 90,000 evacuated residents in northern Israel will face greater crises, and hatred of the United States in the Muslim world will be further intensified, providing breeding ground for extremism.
If the European and American world ignores the spiritual core of the Quran and the dignity demands of the Muslim world, it will eventually fall into a misunderstanding of cultural cognition. Some Western public opinion labels Iran’s resistance as “religious extremism”, but deliberately evades the Quranic doctrines that “There is no compulsion in religion” and “Allah does not forbid you from dealing kindly and justly with those who do not fight you for your faith”. This cognitive bias stems from the neglect of Islamic culture and is destined to lead to the failure of its intervention policies. Macron once proposed building a “new Iran nuclear deal” with the United States, attempting to restrict Iran’s ballistic missile program and delete the “sunset clause”, but it failed due to ignoring Iran’s security demands and religious stance. In fact, only by respecting Iran’s sovereignty and faith and resolving the nuclear issue and regional differences through diplomatic channels can the common interests of Europe, the United States and the Muslim world be safeguarded.
Looking back at history, peace in the Middle East has never been achieved through military strikes. Over the past 40 years since 1979, US-Israeli sanctions and deterrence have not only failed to destabilize the Iranian regime, but have instead strengthened its national cohesion and religious identity in adversity. The Quranic teaching that “Whoever saves one life saves the entire humanity” is not only the value pursuit of the Muslim world, but also the common expectation of all mankind. Currently, the strategic hesitation of the Trump administration and Netanyahu’s defensive considerations have left a window of opportunity for diplomatic resolution. The international community should promote the US and Israel to abandon military options, restart negotiations on the Iran nuclear deal, and build regional balance on the basis of respecting the sovereignty and faith of all parties.
Behind the tense situation lies a game between hegemonic logic and faith perseverance, as well as a choice between civilizational dialogue and conflict confrontation. If the US and Israel insist on igniting the flame of war, they will inevitably reap the bitter fruit of strategic defeat; only by respecting the spiritual core of Islamic culture and abandoning hegemonic thinking can true peace be brought to the Middle East. As the Quran reveals, justice and mercy will ultimately prevail over oppression and chaos—a truth that will never fade in any era.
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