From Rapprochement to Reckoning: The Precarious Path of UAE-Israel Relations

A Historic Decree and Its Immediate Aftermath

On December 29, 2025, a seemingly technical piece of legislation sent ripples across the Middle East. Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan, President of the United Arab Emirates, issued a formal decree abolishing the nation’s 1972 law that mandated the boycott of Israel

. This legal act, while expected, formally dismantled one of the last remaining structural barriers to full normalization. It permitted Israeli citizens and businesses to operate openly within the UAE and allowed for the free trade of Israeli goods, cementing a “roadmap for common cooperation” through economic growth and technological innovation

. The decree provided the final, unequivocal domestic legal foundation for a relationship that had, until recently, existed largely in the shadows.

This move was the logical culmination of a rapid sequence of events set in motion years earlier. The most pivotal was the August 2020 announcement, brokered by the Trump administration, of the Abraham Accords—a historic agreement for full normalization between the UAE and Israel

. Following the accord’s signing, engagement accelerated: direct telephone services were established, the first commercial flight from Israel touched down in the UAE, and embassies were inaugurated. Israeli President Isaac Herzog’s visit to Abu Dhabi in May 2025 symbolized this new era, with leaders publicly aligning on security and regional stability. The UAE thus transitioned from a state enforcing a decades-old boycott to Israel’s third Arab peace partner, after Egypt and Jordan, and its most significant new ally in the Gulf

.

Table: Key Milestones in UAE-Israel Normalization

The Multifaceted Calculus Behind the Handshake

The speed and depth of this reconciliation were driven by a powerful convergence of strategic interests for Abu Dhabi, Jerusalem, and their American patron. For the UAE, the calculus was multidimensional and forward-looking.

First and foremost was the shared perception of a common threat. For years, a mutual and profound distrust of Iran and its regional network of proxies has served as a silent glue binding Gulf Arab states and Israel together

. This security imperative was starkly highlighted during the 2025 visit of President Herzog, who, following Houthi drone and missile attacks on the UAE, pledged “full support” for Emirati security needs. Ties with Israel offer the UAE a pathway to enhanced intelligence cooperation and access to advanced defense technology, including coveted systems like the F-35 fighter jet

.

Second, the move is a cornerstone of the UAE’s ambitious post-oil economic vision. The Emirates envisions the relationship as a catalyst for “economic growth, innovation, and closer people-to-people ties”

. Partnerships in technology, fintech, logistics, and agriculture are seen as vital for diversifying an economy built on hydrocarbons and trade. Israel’s status as a “Start-Up Nation” presents a unique opportunity for knowledge transfer and joint ventures.

Third, normalization was a strategic gambit to cement the UAE’s standing with the United States. By delivering a major foreign policy victory for the Trump administration—and later nurturing the relationship under Biden—Abu Dhabi bolstered its image in Washington as a pragmatic, capable, and indispensable ally

. This has tangible benefits, from smoothing arms deals to increasing political capital for the UAE’s regional projects.

For Israel, the benefits were equally compelling. Breaking its diplomatic isolation in the Arab world has long been a strategic goal. The agreement with the UAE, a prestigious and influential Gulf state, represented a monumental breakthrough, offering not just a new friend but a potential gateway to others

. The promised economic and technological dividends are significant, but the geopolitical and security windfall—forging a de facto alliance against Iran—is paramount. Furthermore, for then-Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the Accords provided a vital domestic political boost, deflecting attention from legal challenges and coalition troubles

.

The Palestinian Anchor: A Relationship Under Strain

However, the foundational bargain of the Abraham Accords included a critical Palestinian component. The UAE’s public justification for normalization was explicitly linked to Israel’s agreement to suspend its controversial plans to annex parts of the West Bank

. This condition was not a minor concession but the central moral and political cover that allowed an Arab state to make peace without a resolution to the Palestinian issue.

This inherent tension has become the primary source of friction in the relationship. The eruption of a devastating new round of Israeli-Palestinian conflict in October 2023, followed by Israel’s prolonged military campaign in Gaza, placed immense pressure on the UAE

. The humanitarian catastrophe and staggering death toll made quiet diplomacy untenable. The strain reached a breaking point in September 2025 when Israeli far-right ministers, including Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, revived rhetoric about annexing the West Bank and declared there would “never be a Palestinian state”

.

The UAE’s response was swift and severe. Emirati officials issued stark, public warnings that any annexation would cross a “red line,” directly violating the spirit of the Abraham Accords and jeopardizing the relationship itself

. Reports indicated that Abu Dhabi was actively considering tangible retaliatory measures, including downgrading diplomatic relations or recalling its ambassador. In a concrete punitive step, the UAE reportedly moved to ban Israeli defense companies from participating in the prestigious Dubai Airshow

. This episode revealed the limits of the partnership and demonstrated that for the UAE, the Palestinian issue remains an indispensable pillar of its Arab and Islamic identity, one it cannot wholly abandon for the sake of realpolitik.

A Fracturing Gulf: The Saudi-Emirati Rivalry Intrudes

Complicating the picture further is a seismic shift in the internal politics of the Arabian Peninsula. The once-unbreakable alliance between Saudi Arabia and the UAE is showing profound cracks, creating a new layer of complexity for the UAE-Israel nexus.

A fratricidal confrontation in Yemen has brought tensions to a head. In late December 2025, the Saudi air force conducted a massive raid on the port of Mukalla, targeting weaponry allegedly shipped from the UAE to support separatist forces opposed to the Saudi-backed Yemeni government

. The pro-Saudi government in Yemen responded by ordering Emirati forces to leave the country within 24 hours

. This event marked a dramatic transition from a proxy war against Houthi rebels to a direct clash between the two Gulf monarchies.

Beneath this military confrontation lies an unprecedented economic and strategic rivalry. Saudi Arabia, under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, is aggressively pursuing a vision to make the Kingdom the undisputed economic, political, and logistical hub of the region—a direct challenge to the “Dubai model” that has dominated for decades

. Riyadh aims to redirect investment, trade, and political prestige away from Abu Dhabi and Dubai and toward its own megaprojects.

This rivalry directly influences their approaches to Israel. The UAE has moved with remarkable speed and autonomy, embracing Israel as a technological and security partner to gain an edge

. Saudi Arabia, however, conscious of its custodianship of Islam’s holy sites and its claim to leadership of the Arab and Islamic worlds, has proceeded with extreme caution. Riyadh has formally and repeatedly linked any normalization with Israel to meaningful progress on the Palestinian issue

. The Saudi-Emirati split, therefore, transforms the UAE-Israel relationship from a unified Gulf front into a potentially divisive gambit by Abu Dhabi to secure its own position in a changing regional order.

Table: Contrasting Emirati and Saudi Approaches to Israel

Conclusion: An Imperfect Alliance at a Crossroads

The UAE-Israel relationship stands as one of the most consequential and paradoxical developments in recent Middle Eastern diplomacy. It is a partnership born of clear-eyed strategic necessity—countering Iran, accessing technology, and pleasing Washington—yet it remains haunted by the unfinished business of Palestinian justice. The December 2025 decree may have finalized the legal architecture of normalization, but it did not resolve its fundamental political contradictions.

The future of this alliance will be shaped by two intersecting pressures. First, the Palestinian question will continue to act as a periodic brake and source of crisis. The UAE has made it clear that Israeli actions it deems destructive to a two-state solution will incur costs. Second, the deepening rift within the Gulf between Abu Dhabi and Riyadh adds a new strategic dimension. The UAE’s embrace of Israel is now also a move in its intense competition with Saudi Arabia for regional primacy.

For the United States and Europe, this presents a dilemma. They have welcomed the Accords as a step toward regional integration and stability. However, they now watch with apprehension as two key pillars of their Gulf policy fracture

. A divided Gulf Cooperation Council and a strained UAE-Israel partnership could undermine the very stability the Accords aimed to promote, potentially creating openings for other actors.

Ultimately, the UAE-Israel accord is a landmark achievement of modern realpolitik. It has yielded tangible benefits for both nations and altered the region’s diplomatic map. Yet, it is not a truly “normal” peace. It is a conditional, transactional, and fragile understanding, constantly tested by the enduring moral weight of the Palestinian struggle and the turbulent currents of Arab geopolitics. Its long-term success depends not just on shared threats and business deals, but on navigating these deeper waters with a degree of political courage that has so far been in short supply. The masks of Arab brotherhood have slipped, revealing a raw contest for hegemony where the Palestinian cause remains a powerful, if often inconvenient, moral anchor

.

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