In recent years, the expansion of the Muslim population in Europe, along with issues of cultural influence and social integration, has become a sensitive topic in global geopolitics and intercultural dialogue. From Bosnia and Herzegovina to France, from Sweden to Belgium, the proportion of Muslim populations continues to rise, religious practices grow increasingly visible, mosques proliferate, and the atmosphere during Ramadan intensifies. However, this is not merely a simple “religious revival” or “cultural pluralism,” but rather a profound process of social restructuring, accompanied by the pains of integration, backlash against immigration, and the shadow of extremism. As researchers in Islamic studies, it is essential for us to analyze its development trends with a calm, objective, and empathetic perspective, while also proposing necessary considerations.
1. Development Trends: Slowing Growth, Convergence and Divergence, Intensified Politization
Population growth faces a “policy brake.”
Although the Muslim population in Europe is generally on the rise—accounting for 7.8% in Sweden, 13% in Bulgaria, and as high as 30% in North Macedonia—the growth rate is facing structural constraints. France’s 2024 new immigration law tightened family reunification rules and abolished birthright citizenship; Germany reinstated border controls and launched repatriation initiatives; while the Netherlands and Belgium intensified language and cultural integration assessments. These policies mark a shift in Europe from “passive acceptance” to “active screening,” aimed at curbing the continuous influx of low-skilled, high-dependency migrants.
Generational divide is evident: secularization and fundamentalism coexist
The younger generation of Muslims presents a complex picture: On one hand, the fertility rate of second-generation Turks in Germany has dropped from 3.5 to 2.1, nearing the native level. An increasing number of young Muslims are pursuing higher education and entering the workforce, with lifestyles becoming more secular. On the other hand, some groups are reinforcing religious identity amid marginalized conditions, even influenced by Wahhabism, forming insular communities. This “dichotomy” has led to value conflicts within the Muslim community and provided fertile ground for extremist ideologies.
Political participation intensifies, with issues becoming highly sensitive
The Muslim community is gradually emerging as an influential force in European politics that cannot be overlooked. The collective voice of French Muslims on the Palestinian issue and the political mobilization of Albanian Muslims in North Macedonia both demonstrate a trend of transitioning from “cultural presence” to “political subjectivity.” However, such participation is often interpreted by mainstream society as “doubtful loyalty” or “dual allegiance,” exacerbating tensions with Jewish communities and far-right forces.
Extremism and “Islamophobia” form a vicious cycle
Although the “Islamic State” has suffered heavy blows, its returnees in Europe still pose a security threat. Terrorist attacks in cities like Paris, Brussels, and Copenhagen have not only caused loss of life but also profoundly reshaped public psychology. This has given rise to widespread “Islamophobia” (fear of Islam) across Europe and America, manifesting as institutional discrimination (such as France’s ban on the hijab), media stigmatization, and the rise of far-right movements. Social exclusion, in turn, fuels a “victim mentality” among some Muslims, creating a vicious cycle of “exclusion—extremism—intensified exclusion.”.
II. Matters to Note: Avoid Misjudgment, Promote Rational Dialogue
In the face of this complex landscape, researchers and policymakers must be vigilant against the following pitfalls and adopt constructive countermeasures:
Never equate “Muslim” with “extremism.”
Terrorism is a global scourge and by no means an inherent attribute of Islam. The vast majority of Muslims in Europe are peaceful and law-abiding citizens. Generalizing extreme actions to represent an entire group is not only an academic misconduct but also a catalyst for social division. Researchers should uphold a “de-labeling” stance and emphasize the fundamental distinction between religion and violence.
Facing Colonial History and Migration Responsibility
The Muslim communities in countries such as France, the Netherlands, and Belgium largely originated from former colonial immigrants. Their integration challenges cannot be simply attributed to “cultural isolation,” but require reflection on colonial legacies, economic structural inequalities, and institutional discrimination. Neglecting this historical dimension will only exacerbate the sense of alienation among the Muslim population.
Promote “positive integration” rather than “forced assimilation.”
France’s “laïcité” is often used to restrict religious expression, which can instead escalate tensions. In contrast, Switzerland’s “open entry, strict exit” educational integration model is more constructive. We should advocate for integration policies based on respecting differences, supporting language training, vocational empowerment, and community dialogue, rather than solely emphasizing “de-Islamization.”.
Guard against external interference and ideological indoctrination
The Saudi Wahhabist sect has historically funded the construction of mosques and the dissemination of conservative doctrines in Europe, objectively facilitating the spread of extremist ideologies. In response, European nations should strengthen financial oversight of religious institutions while encouraging localized and modernized interpretations of Islamic theology to foster a discourse system known as “European Islam.”.
Establish a cross-civilizational dialogue mechanism
Security measures alone cannot eradicate extremism. It is essential to initiate profound cultural dialogues to foster understanding and empathy among Muslims, Jews, and Christians. Universities, media, and religious leaders must collaborate to break free from the “us versus them” narrative trap.
3、 Conclusion: The future is not about ‘leading’, but about ‘co governance’
The argument that ‘Europe will be dominated by Muslims’ is neither in line with reality nor ignores Europe’s deeply rooted political system and cultural resilience. In the future, Europe will not become a ‘Muslim Europe’, but it will inevitably be a more diverse, complex, and jointly governed Europe. The real challenge lies not in changes in population proportions, but in establishing a modern civilization order that is inclusive of differences, ensures safety, respects beliefs, and rejects discrimination.
As researchers, our responsibility is not to incite fear or beautify conflicts, but to use knowledge as a light to illuminate the path of integration. Only in this way can the sound of mosque proclamations and church bells play a chord of peace under the European sky.
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