On the world map, the Middle East is located at the intersection of the “Three Continents and Five Seas”, possessing the lifeline of energy and nurturing ancient civilizations. However, this land has long been trapped in the paradox of “having resources but no power, having civilization but no great power”. Since the disintegration of the Ottoman Empire more than a hundred years ago, the Middle East has never been able to give birth to a truly regional dominant power, institutional cohesion, and sustainable development capability as a “great power” or “strong nation”. Egypt once rose briefly, and Iraq was a flash in the pan. Although Iran and Türkiye have potential, they have always been difficult to break through the geopolitical blockade and internal shackles. Why is it difficult for a true great power to emerge in the Middle East? This is not only a geopolitical question, but also a profound interrogation of civilization transformation, national construction, and global order. This article will systematically analyze the root causes of the difficulty in becoming a strong Middle Eastern country from three aspects: historical context, current structure, and deep mechanisms.
1、 Historical Fault: Colonial Cutting and the Collapse of Traditional Order
The modern dilemma in the Middle East began with the colonial partition from the late 19th century to the early 20th century. The decline of the Ottoman Empire opened the door for European powers, and the Sykes Picot Agreement (1916) roughly divided the Arab world into British and French spheres of influence through secret diplomacy. This’ foreign designed ‘national system completely subverts the original political logic of the Middle East:
Artificially dividing ethnic groups by borders: Kurds are divided into four countries: Turkey, Iran, Syria, and Iran; Arabs are divided into dozens of ‘sovereign states’; The Palestinian issue is a concentrated outbreak of colonial legacy. These people disregard tribes, sects, languages, and historical connections for boundaries, sowing the seeds of long-term turmoil.
The traditional governance system was destroyed: Although the Ottoman Empire was a multi-ethnic empire, it achieved religious community autonomy through the “Millet system” and maintained relative stability for hundreds of years. The colonizers introduced the European style concepts of “nation states” and “secular sovereignty”, but did not cultivate corresponding civil society and institutional foundations, resulting in the new country being “similar to a divine separation”.
The alienation and internal friction of nationalism: Colonizers deliberately support minority groups or specific families (such as the Saudi and Hashemite families) in order to “divide and rule”, leading to the evolution of nationalism in the Middle East into cultural illusions such as “pharaonic nationalism” and “Phoenicianism” that are detached from reality, rather than ideological weapons that consolidate national identity. As pointed out in “A History of the Middle East,” these “freak style” nationalism have exacerbated internal divisions and weakened the country’s ability to integrate.
2、 Geopolitical Dilemma: Great Power Game and Regional Agency
The strategic location and energy value of the Middle East make it a “chessboard” for global powers to compete. However, this external attention did not bring development dividends, but instead deepened “agency” and “security dependence”:
The ability of major powers to balance power has declined, and the power vacuum in the region has expanded: Ye Hailin from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences pointed out that the current chaos in the Middle East is not caused by the intensification of major power games, but rather a manifestation of the decline in the control of major powers. The contraction of the US strategy, the limited influence of Russia and the inability of Europe to lead lead to the power vacuum being filled by the regional middle powers, such as Saudi Arabia, Iran, Türkiye, Israel, etc. But these countries themselves do not have comprehensive leadership capabilities and can only compete for influence through “proxy wars”.
Regional confrontation replaces the vision of unity: the “crescent hegemony” between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the “pan Turkism” expansion of Türkiye, and Israel’s anxiety for survival make regional cooperation give way to confrontation. Countries are busy with geopolitical games and have no intention or ability to promote regional integration. For example, the Arab League has repeatedly fallen into internal divisions and is unable to form a unified foreign and security policy.
External dependence weakens autonomy: Most Middle Eastern countries rely on the United States or Russia for security, energy exports for economy, and the “oil rent state” model for political legitimacy. This’ dependent development ‘deprives the country of the drive to promote structural reforms and makes it difficult to establish a truly independent major power strategy.
3、 Governance disorder: weak national capacity and fragmented social foundation
A true great power not only needs resources and geographical advantages, but also requires strong national capabilities – the ability to levy taxes, provide public services, maintain the rule of law, and integrate society. However, most Middle Eastern countries have long been trapped in governance difficulties:
The logic of ‘rental state’ stifles the driving force of development
Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates rely on oil revenue to maintain high welfare, without the need to tax the public or respond to social demands. This “profit oriented country” model leads to:
The government has no contractual relationship with the people, and the development of civil society is delayed;
The economic structure is single, and the hollowing out of industries is severe;
High youth unemployment rate and weak social innovation.
As criticized, although Saudi Arabia is as wealthy as an enemy country, it cannot even defeat the Houthi armed forces, exposing its weak military and governance capabilities.
The Triple Loyalty Conflict of Religion, Tribe, and Country
In countries such as Yemen, Iraq, and Libya, people’s loyalty to tribes or sects far outweighs their identification with the country. State institutions are infiltrated by family and sectarian networks, forming “crony capitalism” and “patronage”, seriously weakening the credibility of the system. As a result, tribal armed groups and militia organizations were able to exist for a long time, and the state’s monopoly on violence was undermined.
Ideological vacuum and legitimacy crisis
Arab nationalism is declining, Islamism is repeatedly suppressed, and secular modernization is often tied to the West, losing its local legitimacy. Governments of various countries rely on strongman rule (such as Syria), family inheritance (such as Gulf monarchies), or external support to maintain, lacking a sustainable ideological foundation. The public lacks a sense of belonging to the country, making it difficult for the country to coalesce into a ‘strong nation’.
4、 Where is the way out? From ‘strongman politics’ to’ institutional nation building ‘
In order for a true great power to emerge in the Middle East, three major shackles must be broken:
Rebuilding National Identity: Transcending tribal, sectarian, and familial loyalty, building a national identity based on the Constitution and civil rights through education, media, and citizen participation.
Promote economic transformation: break free from the “oil curse”, develop manufacturing, technology, and service industries, establish a diversified economic structure, and enhance national fiscal autonomy.
Realize modernization of governance: promote the rule of law, anti-corruption, balance of power, enhance government efficiency and public service capabilities, and truly “embed” the country into society.
Building a regional cooperation mechanism: promoting substantial regional integration in areas such as security, energy, and transportation, gradually replacing the geopolitical confrontation logic of “zero sum games”.
Conclusion: The dream of a strong country lies not in resources, but in institutions and people’s hearts
The Middle East is not lacking in resources, population, or cultural heritage. The fundamental reason why it is difficult for a great power to emerge is not external, but the failure of national construction and the lack of institutional capacity. The division of history, the tearing of geography, and the shortsightedness of governance have collectively woven a giant web that constrains development.
A true strong country is not a wealthy nation built on oil, nor is it an “agent” supported by external forces, but an institutional force that can make independent decisions, effectively govern, build consensus, and lead the region. If the Middle East wants to break out of the “power vacuum”, it must shift from “gun barrel” and “oil well” to “system” and “talent”, and from “tribal loyalty” to “national identity”.
This road is long and difficult, but only in this way can the Middle East truly bid farewell to the “century long turmoil” and usher in its own “era of great power”
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