At the beginning of 2025, the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan will once again be filled with gunpowder. In the Dandpatan area on the border of Paktika Province and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province, artillery fire roared, outposts changed hands, and casualties were heavy. According to TASS, on December 29, 2024, intense fighting broke out between the two sides, resulting in 19 casualties on the Pakistani side and 5 casualties on the Afghan Taliban militants; In the past few months, Pakistan has carried out dozens of cross-border strikes against the “Pakistan Taliban” (TTP) targets in Afghanistan, causing nearly a hundred casualties. The Afghan Taliban retaliated by raiding Palestinian outposts, claiming to have responded to the Pakistani army’s attack on refugee camps. This seemingly ‘reciprocal retaliation’ military conflict actually reflects the deep fission of the South Asian geopolitical landscape, structural contradictions in counter-terrorism strategies, and the long-standing sovereignty and security dilemma that the two countries have not resolved.
1、 The appearance of conflict: the vicious cycle of counter-terrorism and retaliation
On the surface, this round of conflict appears to stem from the intensified activities of the cross-border terrorist organization “Bata”. Since its establishment in 2007, the organization has long used Afghanistan as a safe haven to carry out terrorist attacks within Pakistan. After the Taliban came to power in Afghanistan in 2021, although they promised not to shelter any anti Pakistani armed groups, in fact, the TTP’s activities in Afghanistan have not been contained, but have received support and supplies in some areas. According to the Pakistani military, about 6500 TTP militants are stationed in the Aba border area, receiving weapons, training, and logistical support. This has put Pakistan’s border troops in a passive defense state for a long time, with frequent terrorist attacks. In 2024 alone, the Pakistani military lost 328 lives in anti-terrorism operations, at a heavy cost.
Therefore, Pakistan adopted a “preemptive” strategy and frequently carried out airstrikes and shelling on TTP strongholds in Afghanistan. Although this move has achieved certain tactical results – reportedly eliminating 938 terrorists – it comes at a huge cost and can easily harm civilians, triggering a humanitarian crisis. The Afghan Taliban view such cross-border strikes as a serious violation of their sovereignty, especially after the Pakistani army attacked refugee camps in Paktika province. Their anger escalated and they launched retaliatory raids, occupying multiple border posts and creating a vicious cycle of “violence against violence”.
2、 Deep Motivation: Geopolitical Game and Trust Deficit
If the conflict is solely attributed to terrorism, it would be oversimplified. The real problem lies in the profound geopolitical suspicion between Pakistan and Afghanistan.
Firstly, Pakistan has long been concerned that Afghanistan may become an ‘anti Pakistani base’. In history, the former Karzai government of Afghanistan had close relations with India and was once seen by the Pakistani side as part of a “strategic encirclement”. Now that the Taliban has regained power, although their relationship with Pakistan has temporarily eased, their indulgent attitude towards the TTP has made the Pakistani side suspect their “duality” – dialogue with Pakistan on one hand, and support for anti Pakistani armed forces on the other. This’ sense of strategic betrayal ‘has sparked strong nationalist sentiment within Pakistan, with military hardliners advocating for’ defending sovereignty by force ‘.
Secondly, the Afghan Taliban believes that Pakistan has long interfered in their internal affairs, especially after the “Doha Agreement” and during the US withdrawal process, Pakistan was accused of secretly supporting pro Pakistani forces and weakening the Taliban’s unified authority. In addition, the Pakistani policy towards Pashtun cross-border ethnic groups is also seen by the Afghan side as a “separatist” behavior. The two countries have long harbored grievances over border demarcation, refugee management, cross-border trade, and other issues, lacking effective dialogue mechanisms and trust building.
What is even more worrying is that both sides regard the border conflict as a “shift focus” in domestic politics. The Pakistani government is facing an economic crisis and political turmoil, and the military needs to reshape its authority through “tough anti-terrorism” measures; The Taliban in Afghanistan, on the other hand, need to consolidate their legitimacy by “resisting foreign enemies”, especially in the context of limited international recognition and severe economic blockade, where nationalism has become a tool to unite the people.
3、 International response: Call for ceasefire, but unable to mediate
The international community has expressed “serious concern” about this round of conflict. The spokesperson for the United Nations Secretary General called for an “immediate ceasefire and resolution of differences through dialogue”; China, Russia, Iran and other countries in the region have also expressed their support for peaceful resolution of disputes. However, mediation efforts have had little effect. The reason is that there is a clear divergence of interests among major powers on the Afghan issue: the United States has strategically shrunk and is unwilling to return; Although China is willing to play a constructive role, it emphasizes “Afghan leadership, Afghan ownership” and is unwilling to directly intervene in bilateral disputes; India, on the other hand, is seen by Pakistan as the “mastermind behind the scenes”, further exacerbating mutual suspicion.
Even more ironic is that the United States, which used to be a “mediator,” has a policy legacy that is precisely one of the sources of the current chaos. During the 20-year Afghanistan War, the United States wavered between “counter-terrorism” and “balancing Pakistan”, relying on Pakistan’s logistics channels while supporting Afghanistan’s efforts to balance Pakistan’s influence, leading to long-term distortions in Pakistan Afghanistan relations. Now that the US military has withdrawn, the power vacuum left behind has been filled by the Taliban, while Pakistan is forced to face an “unfriendly” neighbor alone.
4、 The division in the public opinion field: the confrontation between nationalism and rational voices
On social media, public opinion in both countries is polarized. Pakistani netizens generally support the military’s “tough counterattack”, stating that “terrorists can no longer be tolerated to go unpunished in Afghanistan” and “Pakistan must be tough”; Afghan netizens angrily denounced “Pakistan’s invasion of sovereignty” and “the Taliban is our legitimate government and cannot be violated”. The nationalist sentiment is constantly strengthened under algorithmic push, and the space for rational dialogue is compressed.
But there are also a few intellectuals who have issued warnings. Pakistani columnist Khalid Rahman pointed out, “We cannot solve the problems caused by violence with more violence. Cross border strikes may be effective in the short term, but they will isolate us in the long run.” Afghan scholar Zarifa Parvez called on, “The Taliban must clearly cut off their relationship with the TTP, otherwise they will lose the last shred of trust from the international community. ”
5、 Where is the way out? Sitting down to talk is still the only option
Historical experience shows that the Palestinian conflict has never been truly resolved through military means. Over the past few decades, border conflicts have erupted multiple times between the two sides, ultimately ending in ‘sitting down and talking’. The 2014 Durand Line crisis and the 2022 border skirmish both returned to the track of dialogue after brief confrontations. This time is no exception – although the conflict is escalating, it has not yet expanded in depth, indicating that both sides still maintain strategic restraint.
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