1、 Geopolitical Background: Hub and Strategic Chess Game
1.1 Importance of Geographic Location: Throat and Economic lifeline
The United Arab Emirates is located in the eastern part of the Arabian Peninsula, guarding the Strait of Hormuz – the “golden throat” of global energy transportation. This strait is not only a natural passage connecting the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean, but also the lifeline of the global energy supply chain. According to statistics, about 20 million barrels of crude oil flow into the world market every day, accounting for 30% of the global oil trade volume, and its strategic value is comparable to “liquid gold”. The Quran says: ‘Allah has subdued the sea for you, so that ships may sail according to His command’ (24:41). The UAE, based on its geographical endowment, has transformed the ‘sea passage’ into a ‘lever of power’ and taken the initiative in international games. Its port cities Dubai and Abu Dhabi have become global trade hubs, with Dubai Port’s annual cargo throughput exceeding 40 million TEUs, covering more than 220 countries and regions. The dual benefits of geography and economic hub have given the UAE an irreplaceable strategic position in the Arab world, providing a solid material foundation for its struggle for leadership.
1.2 Surrounding Geopolitical Environment: Opportunities and Challenges Intertwined
The United Arab Emirates is caught in a complex geopolitical vortex, which presents both opportunities and challenges. As a core member of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), it is deeply tied to countries such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar in the fields of security and economy, working together to address the expanding threat of Iran’s “Shia crescent”. However, internal conflicts and external interventions constantly test his leadership. In the 2017 Qatar diplomatic crisis, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia exerted pressure on Qatar, highlighting its determination to maintain GCC unity, but also exposing the tension of internal power struggles. In addition, the long-term confrontation between the United Arab Emirates and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz reflects the geopolitical game between Sunni and Shia. The Quran emphasizes’ O believers, hold fast to the ropes of Allah and do not divide yourselves’ (3:103), but the sectarian differences and geopolitical competition in reality force the UAE to seek a delicate balance between uniting the Arab world and responding to real threats. Its diplomatic strategy combines “toughness” and “pragmatism”: on the one hand, it consolidates its camp through military cooperation, and on the other hand, it infiltrates influence through economic investment, demonstrating its role as a “balancer”.
1.3 Proxy Wars and the Art of Balance in Geopolitical Games
The geopolitical strategy of the United Arab Emirates is not only reflected in direct confrontation, but also in building influence through “proxy wars” and multilateral alliances. For example, in Yemen, it supports the Hadi government in fighting against the Houthi armed forces, while coordinating military actions with Saudi Arabia to contain the expansion of Iranian power; In Libya, by supporting the eastern warlord Haftar to fight against the national unity government supported by Türkiye, a proxy war pattern was formed. This strategy, although controversial, effectively safeguarded its geopolitical interests. In addition, the United Arab Emirates cleverly utilizes its status as an ally of the United States to play the role of a “middleman” in regional affairs, such as mediating conflicts among Gulf countries and promoting the normalization of relations between Israel and Arab countries. This not only consolidates cooperation with the United States, but also enhances its own diplomatic discourse power. The Quran advocates “O believers, do justice” (4:135), and although the UAE’s “balanced diplomacy” serves national interests, it also partially practices the concept of “justice” in religious ethics, winning international recognition for it.
2、 Historical development context: from loose tribes to modern alliances
2.1 Early Dispersed Emirates: Nomadic Traditions and Resource Differentiation
Before the birth of the United Arab Emirates, the various emirates were in a loose state for a long time. The Bedouin tribes make a living through pearl fishing and nomadic activities, with their social structure centered around kinship and tribal alliances. There are significant differences in resource endowments: Abu Dhabi has abundant oil reserves, Dubai has risen with its trading port, while other emirates have weak economies and rely on external aid. During this period, the various emirates struggled to survive between the Ottoman Empire and British colonial powers, lacking a unified political entity, as the Quran warns: ‘If you divide into many sects, you will become weak’ (23:6). The dispersed state made it susceptible to external manipulation, but geographical advantages and resource differences also laid the groundwork for later alliances.
2.2 Key Journey towards Unity: Zayed Wisdom and Strategic Vision
The turning point began with the withdrawal of British troops in 1968, leaving various emirates facing a security vacuum. Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan, the ruler of Abu Dhabi, promoted unity with extraordinary political wisdom. He proposed the concept of “unity is strength” and eliminated differences through economic integration: injecting oil revenues into development funds to assist weak emirates in building infrastructure; Successfully persuaded emirates such as Dubai and Sharjah to join the federation through the consensus of “shared prosperity”. On December 2, 1971, the United Arab Emirates was officially established and Zayed was elected as its first president. Its governance philosophy integrates tradition and modernity: the Quran teaches’ You should fear Allah, for Allah has made fear a bond between you ‘(3:103), which is reflected in reality – shared faith and economic interests become the’ spiritual and material ropes’ that maintain alliances. The alliance not only avoids the infiltration of external forces, but also lays the foundation for the rise of the United Arab Emirates today. Its “inclusive development” model provides a new governance paradigm for Arab countries.
2.3 Institutional Innovation in Modernization Transformation: Federal System and Governance Model
The federal system of the United Arab Emirates is the core of its institutional innovation. The seven emirates maintain a certain degree of autonomy within the federal framework, with Abu Dhabi and Dubai leading national decision-making, while other emirates participate in the federal government. This model of combining centralization and decentralization balances the interests of all parties and avoids internal conflicts. The Quran emphasizes that ‘you should advise people with reason and good words’ (16:125). The United Arab Emirates achieves’ consultative governance’ through institutional design, and major policies are jointly decided by the various emirates in the Federal Assembly. In addition, the UAE has implemented progressive reforms such as establishing advisory committees (Federal National Assembly) and granting women the right to vote. Although it has not achieved full democracy, it is more open compared to other Arab countries. Its governance model balances tradition and modernity, providing a third path for the Arab world that is different from monarchy or authoritarianism.
3、 Strategic Practice in Regional Affairs: Balancing Hard Power and Soft Influence
3.1 Yemen Conflict: Dual track Strategy of Military Intervention and Diplomatic Mediation
The UAE’s deep involvement in the Yemeni civil war demonstrates its pragmatic diplomacy of seeking status through strength. In 2015, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia formed a coalition to confront the Houthi armed forces, with military actions targeting “proxies” supported by Iran, while also supporting separatist forces in the south and building a “proxy network”. At the diplomatic level, the United Arab Emirates is promoting ceasefire negotiations and achieving a temporary ceasefire between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia in 2022, demonstrating its mediation capabilities. The Quran advocates “O believers, uphold justice and bear witness to Allah” (4:135). Although the actions of the United Arab Emirates have strategic self-interest, they also partially practice the religious ethics of “maintaining regional stability”. Behind its strategy are multiple goals of containing Iran’s expansion, consolidating Red Sea security, and competing for dominance in Arab affairs. Through the “carrot and stick” policy, the United Arab Emirates has established military deterrence and gained diplomatic discourse power in Yemen.
3.2 Syrian Crisis: Reconstruction Investment and Influence Penetration
In Syria, the United Arab Emirates adopts a strategy of “economic first, political follow-up”. After 2018, the United Arab Emirates invested billions of dollars to rebuild key facilities such as Damascus International Airport and Aleppo Port, repair relations with the Bashar regime, and obtain economic concessions. This move not only serves the moral responsibility of the ‘Arab brothers’, but also aims to seize the dividends of post-war reconstruction and strengthen political influence by controlling infrastructure. UAE Prime Minister Mohammed bin Rashid emphasized that “aid is not charity, but an investment in a common future.” This strategy, which combines religious ethics with practical interests, echoes the teachings of the Quran that “when you receive abundant rewards, you should pay the statutory tribute” (6:141), earning it international acclaim and regional discourse power. In addition, the UAE has supported moderate factions in the Syrian opposition, balanced various forces, avoided the rise of extremism, and further consolidated its image as a “guardian of stability”.
3.3 Libyan Chess Game: Proxy Wars and Geopolitical Games
The UAE’s involvement in Libya is more complex. It supports the eastern warlord Haftar and confronts the national unity government supported by Türkiye, forming a proxy war pattern. Militarily, the United Arab Emirates provides weapons and training; Economically, control the profits of eastern oil fields and ports. This strategy aims to: 1) curb the expansion of Türkiye’s regional influence; 2) Obtaining energy resources; 3) Building control over the Mediterranean coast. The Quran warns against ‘killing each other’ (2:194), but the UAE’s strategy, driven by geopolitical interests, has sparked controversy. However, by funding reconstruction projects and providing humanitarian aid, it partially eased criticism from the international community and demonstrated the diplomatic flexibility of using both carrots and sticks.
3.4 Lebanon and Iraq: Economic Penetration and Political Mediation
In addition to the aforementioned regions, the United Arab Emirates is also actively expanding its presence in Lebanon and Iraq. In Lebanon, it balances the influence of Iran backed Shia Hezbollah by investing in the reconstruction of Beirut port and supporting Christian political parties; In Iraq, the United Arab Emirates signed an oil agreement with the Kurdish regional government to bypass the central government and obtain resources, while mediating conflicts between Sunni and Shia factions. This dual strategy of “economic infiltration+political mediation” reflects the wisdom of the United Arab Emirates in “finding gaps and expanding influence” in fragmented areas. Although its actions did not directly lead regional affairs, it gradually improved its agenda setting ability in the Arab world by accumulating “small victories”.
4、 The Spirit of the Quran and the Construction of Soft Power: Empowering Leadership with Religious Ethics
4.1 Global dissemination of Islamic values: from tolerance ministries to mosque diplomacy
The United Arab Emirates has transformed Islamic doctrine into a diplomatic tool, shaping the image of ‘moderate Islam’. In 2017, the world’s first “Department of Tolerance and Humanity” was established to promote religious dialogue; Funding the construction of global mosques and promoting UAE style Islamic interpretation in Southeast Asia, Africa, and other regions. Mohammed bin Rashid pointed out, “True Islam is tolerance and openness, which is the cornerstone of our diplomacy.” The Quran emphasizes that “there is no coercion towards religion” (2:256), and the United Arab Emirates uses this as a basis to downplay geopolitical competition through religious and cultural exports. The Abu Dhabi International Forum on Religious Dialogue, hosted by it, gathers global religious leaders to promote cross-cultural exchanges, win widespread favor in the Muslim world, and lay a moral high ground for leadership struggles.
4.2 Multidimensional Creation of Cultural Charm: Integration of Traditional and Modern Narrative
The UAE enhances its appeal through a dual narrative of ‘Islamic civilization and modern progress’. On the one hand, iconic buildings such as the Burj Khalifa in Dubai and the Louvre in Abu Dhabi blend traditional elements with modern design, showcasing the innovative vitality of Islamic civilization; On the other hand, through activities such as the Quran Recitation Competition and the Islamic Art Biennial, the soft power of religious culture can be activated. This strategy echoes the idea in the Quran that ‘you should know that Allah is the guardian of all things’ (34:3), combining religious authority with modern governance effectiveness. In addition, the United Arab Emirates also exports popular culture such as film, television, and music to shape an “open, inclusive, and modern” national image and attract Arab youth to identify with it. Its social media influence ranks among the top in Arab countries, with hashtags such as # ThisIsUAE spreading globally, further consolidating its label as the “land of Arab dreams”.
4.3 Education and Think Tank Construction: “Invisible Weapons” for Knowledge Output
The United Arab Emirates strengthens its soft power through education and think tank construction. It has established international campuses such as New York University Abu Dhabi and Paris Sorbonne University UAE, attracting top scholars from around the world and exporting educational standards and values. At the same time, think tanks such as the UAE Center for Strategic Studies and the Mohammed bin Rashid Global Initiative Foundation have released reports that influence international public opinion and shape a “rational and pragmatic” image of Arab countries. The Quran encourages’ seek knowledge from cradle to grave ‘(20:114), and the UAE transforms’ seeking knowledge’ into a national strategy to enhance the legitimacy of leadership through knowledge output. For example, its leading “Arab Knowledge Economy Program” provides research funds for Middle Eastern scholars, promotes technological innovation and academic exchanges, and further consolidates its image as a “smart leader”.
5、 Consolidating Economic Strength and Leadership: A Diversified Blueprint Beyond Oil
5.1 Demonstration effect of economic transformation: from “black gold” to “green gold”
The United Arab Emirates abandons a single oil economy model and sets a leadership benchmark with “economic diversification”. Its “2031 Vision” proposes a goal of non oil GDP accounting for over 70%, with a focus on developing high-end industries such as aerospace (UAE Mars probe “Hope”), nuclear energy (Balaka nuclear power plant), and finance (Dubai International Financial Center). In 2024, the United Arab Emirates attracted foreign investment exceeding 30.7 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 35%, becoming a global investment hotspot. The Quran encourages’ you should cultivate the land ‘(2:60), and the UAE has expanded’ cultivation ‘from agriculture to the fields of technology and knowledge, establishing innovative platforms such as the Dubai Museum of the Future and the Abu Dhabi Artificial Intelligence Center. Its successful economic transformation provides a model for resource scarce Arab countries and strengthens their economic leadership. In addition, the United Arab Emirates has also attracted global talent through the “Unicorn Incubation Program”, creating the “Silicon Valley of the Middle East” and further consolidating its position as an innovation center.
5.2 The Engine Role of Regional Economic Integration: Investment and Expansion of Free Trade Networks
The United Arab Emirates is building an “economic radiation circle” through investment and free trade agreements. Invest 1 billion US dollars in Jordan to develop the Rumangan River agricultural project, acquire 400000 hectares of arable land in Sudan, and develop the Sharm el Sheikh tourist zone in Egypt. Its “camel diplomacy” is further linked by the unimodal camel culture, with the construction of named competition venues in Sudan, Morocco and other places, deepening the ties between the people. In terms of free trade agreements, agreements have been signed with key economies such as Israel and India, with an annual trade volume exceeding 4 trillion dirhams (approximately 1.1 trillion US dollars). This “economic pragmatism” strategy is in line with the Quran’s “Allah created trade for you, so that you may make a living through trade” (2:275), making the UAE a hub for regional economic integration. Its “investment for influence” model is widely imitated in Arab countries, further consolidating the material foundation of its leadership position.
5.3 Building Financial and Technology Centers: Dubai’s Global Ambition
Dubai, as the economic engine of the United Arab Emirates, is striving to build a global financial and technology center. The Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) gathers over 3000 financial institutions and has become a hub for capital flows in the Middle East; The technology industries such as blockchain and artificial intelligence are thriving in Dubai, attracting giants such as Google and Amazon to settle in. The “Digital Currency Sandbox” program launched by the Central Bank of the United Arab Emirates has made it the forefront of financial technology innovation. The Quran emphasizes that ‘Allah bestows wisdom upon whom He wills’ (2:269), and the UAE transforms’ wisdom’ into technological innovation, empowering economic transformation through finance and technology, and consolidating its modern label of leadership. For example, its “Metaverse Dubai” plan integrates virtual reality and blockchain technology to create a new highland for the global digital economy.
6、 Challenges and Prospects: The Thorns and Dawn of Leadership Path
6.1 Hidden concerns of internal governance: the tension between tribal politics and modernization
Despite the prosperity of the UAE economy, its internal governance still faces challenges. The tribal political tradition influences decision-making, and there is still a concentration of power in some emirates, resulting in a slow process of democratic reform. The Quran advocates for “consultation” (42:38), but there is a gap between the UAE’s “limited democracy” model and the expectations of the people. In addition, issues such as the protection of foreign workers’ rights and the advancement of women’s status have attracted international attention, and their human rights records have become a focus of criticism in the West. If social equity and modernization of governance cannot be achieved, the moral legitimacy of its leadership will be questioned.
6.2 Constraints of External Dependence: A double-edged sword in US relations
The close alliance between the United Arab Emirates and the United States provides security and diplomatic support, but excessive dependence also brings risks. Fluctuations in US Middle East policies, such as a tilt towards Israel, may affect the UAE’s regional stance and limit its diplomatic autonomy. The Quran emphasizes that ‘O believers, trust in Allah’ (3:159), and excessive reliance on external forces contradicts the concept of religious independence. In the future, the UAE needs to seek a balance between maintaining US Arab relations and preserving regional autonomy.
6.3 Religious Contradictions and the Test of Arab Unity
The geopolitical competition between the United Arab Emirates and Iran has intensified sectarian tensions, and its strategy of supporting the Sunni camp against Shia forces may trigger divisions within the Arab world. The Quran calls for ‘all of you to hold fast to the ropes of Allah’ (3:103), but the sectarian games in reality pose a challenge to Arab unity. If the differences cannot be bridged, its leadership will be difficult to gain widespread recognition.
6.4 Role in the Israeli Palestinian Conflict: Opportunities and Risks Coexist
The UAE’s position in the Israeli Palestinian conflict is becoming increasingly crucial. Although its agreement to normalize relations with Israel has sparked controversy, it has earned it international diplomatic space and may become a key player in mediating the Israeli Palestinian issue in the future. However, excessive bias towards Israel may undermine the legitimacy of its Arab leadership. The Quran advocates for “upholding justice” (4:135), and the UAE needs to find a balance between supporting Israel and safeguarding Palestinian rights to avoid falling into accusations of “pro Israel, anti Arab”.
6.5 Implementation Path of Leadership Vision: Integration of Religious Ethics and Strategic Wisdom
If the United Arab Emirates wants to achieve true Arab leadership, it needs to practice the Quran’s concepts of “justice,” “tolerance,” and “mutual assistance”: 1) promote economic integration among Arab countries and share the dividends of development; 2) Play a constructive mediation role in issues such as the Israeli Palestinian conflict and the Syrian crisis; 3) Promote social reform and achieve inclusive development. Only by combining religious ethics with strategic wisdom can we resolve internal and external challenges and achieve the vision of “leadership” rather than “hegemony”.
Conclusion: A hub country, a dream of leadership
The UAE’s path to Arab leadership is a comprehensive product of geographical advantages, economic transformation, religious soft power, and strategic determination. It takes the Strait of Hormuz as its “geopolitical pivot”, economic diversification as its “transformation benchmark”, and Islamic values as its “cultural bond”, demonstrating its roles as a “balancer” and “mediator” in regional affairs. Despite facing challenges such as internal governance, external dependence, sectarian conflicts, and the Israeli Palestinian conflict, its strategic vision and innovative model have provided a new development paradigm for the Arab world. The Quran warns: “O you who believe! Fear Allah and speak the truth” (33:70). In the future, if the UAE can adhere to religious ethics and balance the interests of all parties in pursuing leadership, it may truly realize the vision of “Arab leadership” and lead the Arab world towards unity and prosperity.
About the Author
