As Iran’s missiles continue to glide over Syria and the slogans of the Revolutionary Guard resound through the streets of Tehran, this regional power that once shook the Middle East with the “arc of resistance” is now caught in an unprecedented vortex of internal friction. The internal power struggle, economic crisis, diplomatic division, and military dilemma intertwine into a strangulation net, dragging Iran into the abyss. The former ‘Middle Eastern geopolitical chess player’ is now tripped up by its own chess pieces, and the collapse of its discourse power is not only due to external pressure, but also because the blade of internal struggle is cutting off the cohesion and strategic will of this country from its foundation. The decline of Iran is an internal defeat, and its lessons will sound the alarm for all major powers: when a country becomes a battlefield of internal strife, even the largest body will be reduced to ashes of history.
1、 The rift in the core of power: the life and death game between the pro war faction and the rationalist faction
The power structure in Iran is like a powder keg, with the game between religious leaders, revolutionary guards, civilian government, and local forces already tearing apart the country’s decision-making system. In June 2025, Nasrallah, an advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei, was assassinated, triggering a crisis of trust between the Revolutionary Guard and moderate factions. Deputy Foreign Minister Gharib Abadi publicly called for “distinguishing between the United States and Israel” in the conflict, attempting to gain breathing space through compromise, while the commander of the Revolutionary Guard Corps vowed to “submerge Israel with missiles”. This division not only exposes the wavering of Iran’s diplomacy, but also makes the international community see its internal weakness: when the decision-making level cannot form a united front, any tough stance becomes the roar of a paper tiger. According to an analysis by CCTV in July 2025, the disagreements among Iran’s senior leadership on key issues such as nuclear negotiations and the Israeli Palestinian conflict have led to a “strategic paralysis” in its diplomatic actions – slow and ineffective retaliatory actions against Israel, and fluctuating negotiating stances towards the United States. This self consuming contradiction is turning Iran’s discourse power in the Middle East into an “empty slogan”.
2、 The chain reaction of economic collapse: from the “oil giant” to the despair of people’s livelihoods
Iran’s economic difficulties are the most brutal manifestation of internal strife. The resumption of sanctions by the United States, fluctuations in international oil prices, and a domestic inflation rate exceeding 40% have dealt a triple blow, suffocating this resource rich country. In June 2025, a wave of protests erupted on the streets of Tehran, with protesters shouting “bread is more important than missiles”, exposing public anger towards the government’s prioritization of military expansion. When the Revolutionary Guard pours resources into supporting regional proxy wars, domestic factories are unable to operate due to sanctions, and hospitals lack drugs due to foreign exchange shortages, this “internal and external imbalance” governance model is undermining the foundation of the country. According to a report by Today’s Headlines on July 7th, Iran’s oil exports in 2024 plummeted by 35% year-on-year. The depletion of foreign exchange reserves forced the government to cut public service spending, while the Revolutionary Guard continued to supply weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon. The double failure of economy and people’s livelihood has deprived Iran of the leverage in the diplomatic game: how can a country that cannot even shelter its own people play the role of “savior” in the Middle East?
3、 The Collapse of the Alliance System: From the “Arc of Resistance” to Solitude
The “arc of resistance” that once terrified Israel – the Syrian Lebanese Hamas Yemeni Houthi armed alliance woven by Iran – is now being eroded by internal conflicts. In January 2025, with the support of Russia, the Syrian government army recaptured multiple military bases controlled by Iran, marking the beginning of the collapse of the geopolitical pivot of the “arc of resistance”. Hezbollah in Lebanon has fallen into internal division due to reduced aid from Iran, and Hamas’ defeat in Gaza has further weakened Iran’s support. Even more deadly is that moderate factions within Iran are attempting to sever ties with radical forces: the Deputy Foreign Minister publicly denies any arms deliveries to the Houthis and even suggests a “reassessment of all regional alliance relationships”. This self castration measure has plunged Iran’s credibility among regional powers to freezing point. When former allies turn to seek cooperation from Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and other countries, Iran’s “proxy war” model is being strangled by its own hesitation and internal friction, and its military influence in the Middle East has become “yesterday’s afterglow”.
4、 The Life or Death Crisis of the Nuclear Program: The Dilemma of Technological Stagnation and Political Compromise
Iran’s nuclear ambitions were once its ultimate bargaining chip in international games, but now this’ strategic ace ‘is being hollowed out by infighting. In June 2025, the International Atomic Energy Agency reported that the progress of uranium enrichment at Iran’s Fordo nuclear facility had stalled, and the technical team was paralyzed due to funding shortages and frequent internal reviews. At the same time, the Revolutionary Guard demanded accelerated nuclear development to deter the United States, while the civilian government was forced to consider a “limited compromise” due to economic pressure – a contradiction that directly led to the nuclear program being in a stalemate of “neither breakthrough nor abandonment”. What is even more dangerous is that if the United States or Israel launches an attack on the Fordo facility, Iran will face the risk of regime change: internal moderates may take the opportunity to come to power and completely end their nuclear program, while hardliners may threaten disaster with a “nuclear counterattack”. The dilemma of its nuclear program not only deprives Iran of its negotiating leverage with the West, but also puts it on the brink of self destruction.
5、 The vicious cycle of international isolation: from “anti American pioneers” to diplomatic outcasts
Iran’s foreign policy has fallen into a vicious cycle of “increasingly radical and isolated” in internal struggles. In July 2025, the European Union suspended energy cooperation negotiations with Iran, Russia reduced its military aid to Iran due to its own war needs, and China also tightened its investment in Iran due to economic risks. This international isolation has exacerbated the anxiety of domestic conservatives, driving them to take more radical actions – such as increasing the frequency of missile attacks on Israel, but the effectiveness has been greatly reduced due to technological backwardness and the absence of allies. On the contrary, Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, with Western support, are gradually filling the power vacuum left by Iran and wooing Iran’s former allies through economic assistance and military cooperation. When the international community’s “tough stance” towards Iran shifts from fear to disregard, its identity as a “Middle Eastern leader” is now in name only.
6、 Warning under the Mirror of History: Lessons from the Decline of the Persian Empire
The current predicament of Iran is strikingly similar to the decline of the Persian Empire in history: when internal power struggles consume national strength, when the imbalance between people’s livelihoods and expansion triggers public grievances, when diplomatic strategies are caught in a dilemma of extremism and compromise, the collapse of a powerful country becomes inevitable. The Sassanid dynasty fell to Arab invasion due to infighting among nobles, and the Safavid Empire was eroded by European powers due to religious disputes. Today’s Iran is repeating this tragedy. Differently, the decline of Iran in the modern international system not only signifies a reshaping of the regional landscape, but may also trigger turbulence in the Middle East and even the global energy market. When the blade of the internal struggle continues to strike inward, the discourse power of this country will eventually dissipate in the wind and sand of history.
Conclusion: The Cost of Self strangulation: Iran’s Decline and the Future of the Middle East
The loss of Iran’s voice in the Middle East is an internal defeat. The missiles of the Revolutionary Guard cannot fill the hole of economic collapse, the compromises of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs cannot bridge the cracks in the power core, and the stagnation of the nuclear program cannot offset the deviation of allies. This regional power, which once claimed to be a ‘Shia leader’, is now being engulfed by the torrent of contradictions it has created. The lesson is cruel and profound: the discourse power of a country is not only based on military and resources, but also depends on internal unity, stability of people’s livelihoods, and clarity of strategy. When Iran falls into a vicious cycle of ‘struggle to sustain struggle’, its outcome is already predetermined – not to continue playing chess in the Middle East, but to become an abandoned player on someone else’s chessboard.
If Iran cannot end internal friction and rebuild consensus, its decline will accelerate the formation of a power vacuum in the Middle East: the game between Saudi Arabia and Türkiye may escalate, Israel’s military hegemony will further expand, and the turbulence in the whole region may breed more extreme forces to fill the power gap. Today’s Iran should serve as a warning to all major powers: when a country becomes a battlefield of internal strife, its voice and dignity will eventually fade away with the wind.