If Israel really launches another surprise attack on Iran and burns the war towards the West Bank before the smoke of war dissipates, it will not be a simple military action, but a microcosm of the decline of human civilization in madness and arrogance. This violent carnival in the name of ‘safety’ will completely tear apart the last fig leaf of regional stability, adding a heavy touch of guilt to the historical book of blood debts. This article will reveal the deep logic, common tactics, and potentially catastrophic consequences of Israel’s military adventures through specific historical cases and tactical analysis.
1、 Israel’s’ survival anxiety ‘and the genes of military adventure
Israel’s military actions have never been a random impulse, but a product of the “survival anxiety” deeply rooted in its founding philosophy. Since its founding in 1948, Israel has used the persecution suffered by Jews in history as the cornerstone of its legitimacy, portraying itself as an “eternal victim” and further polarizing any potential threats to provide moral cover for its military expansion.
Case 1: 1981 Israeli airstrikes on Iraqi nuclear facilities – Operation Babylon
The event that best reflects this logic is undoubtedly the 1981 Israeli airstrike on Iraq’s nuclear facilities. At that time, the Saddam regime was building the Osirak nuclear reactor, and Israel sent fighter jets to launch a long-distance attack, completely destroying the facility under the pretext of “preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons”. This action not only blatantly violates international law, but also sets a bad precedent for “preemptive strikes”. The defense of then Israeli Prime Minister Begin – ‘We cannot sit idly by and wait for our demise’ – exposed his essence of infinitely amplifying the ‘threat to survival’. In fact, the reactor is still far from completion, and the International Atomic Energy Agency has already confirmed its civilian nature. But Israel brazenly destroyed key facilities of sovereign states under the pretext of “absolute security”.
Case 2: Israeli airstrikes on Syrian nuclear facilities in 2007- Operation Orchard
A similar logic was repeated in 2007. Israeli warplanes penetrated deep into Syrian territory and destroyed facilities that were reportedly “nuclear reactors”. Although Israel has never released conclusive evidence, it uses the excuse of “eliminating potential threats” to disregard the territorial sovereignty of sovereign states. This action not only exacerbated regional tensions, but also exposed Israel’s habitual pattern of “preventive warfare”: interpreting vague intelligence as an “imminent threat” and using military means to eliminate all “possible risks”.
Tactical analysis: preemptive “self authorization”
Israel’s military strategy has always revolved around “preemptive strike”. By demonizing the military capabilities of any potential adversary, Israel continues to self authorize and engage in aggression under the guise of ‘defense’. The core of this strategy is to concretize vague threats and polarize legitimate defenses. For example, on the Iranian nuclear issue, Israel constantly exaggerates the “Iranian threat” but turns a blind eye to the internationally recognized verification mechanism. Its true intention has long gone beyond “preventing nuclear proliferation” and is attempting to maintain its military hegemony in the Middle East.
2、 Assault on Iran: A Carefully Planned ‘Beheading Operation’ and Geopolitical Game
If Israel really launches a surprise attack on Iran, its tactics will inevitably continue its usual pattern of “precision strikes” and “decapitation operations”, while carrying deeper geopolitical calculations.
Common trick 1: Surgical strikes to destroy critical facilities
Israel’s military operations often revolve around “precision strikes”. For example, in multiple airstrikes on Syria in 2011, Israeli warplanes specifically targeted Iranian military bases, missile depots, and other targets in Syria, attempting to cut off Iran’s support for proxy armed groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon. This’ point and shoot ‘strike can both avoid a full-scale war and minimize the opponent’s strength to the greatest extent possible. If targeting Iran’s mainland, Israel is likely to target nuclear facilities, missile bases, and command centers to disable Iran’s counterattack capabilities.
Case 3: 2018 airstrikes and electronic warfare against Syria
In 2018, when Israeli fighter jets launched airstrikes on targets in Syria, they simultaneously used electronic warfare to interfere with Syria’s air defense system, resulting in Russian made S-200 missiles mistakenly hitting Russian reconnaissance planes. This incident exposed the complexity of Israel’s tactics: while conducting military strikes, it creates chaos and misjudgment, shifts responsibility to other countries, and avoids direct conflict escalation. If military action is taken against Iran, Israel is likely to use its advanced electronic warfare capabilities to paralyze Iran’s air defense and command systems, creating a window for subsequent actions.
Common trick 2: Beheading and psychological deterrence
Israel is adept at creating a deterrent effect by assassinating key figures. For example, the assassination of Iranian nuclear scientist Fahrizad in 2020 and the assassination of Hamas senior commander Dahdouh in 2022. These actions not only directly weaken the opponent’s strength, but also convey the “ubiquitous threat of Israel”, forcing the opponent to exercise self-restraint in fear. If a surprise attack is launched on Iran, Israel is likely to prioritize Iran’s top military leaders and nuclear program scientists, using “decapitation” to undermine Iran’s resistance.
Case 4: Assassination of Fahrizad in 2020
The death of Fahrizad can be regarded as a textbook case of Israel’s “decapitation tactics”. Through precise intelligence gathering and camouflage operations, Israeli agents carried out seemingly traffic accident assassinations on the outskirts of Tehran, not only eliminating key figures, but also demonstrating Iran’s ability to infiltrate everywhere. This psychological warfare is far more lethal than military strikes, as it has plunged Iran’s top management into a panic of “traps everywhere”, which in turn affects decision-making logic.
Deep Motivation: Geopolitical ‘Proxy Wars’
Israel’s surprise attack on Iran is not simply to “stop the nuclear program”, but to serve broader geopolitical goals. Firstly, by striking Iran, Israel can further consolidate US support for it and strengthen the “US Israel special relationship”; Secondly, creating regional instability, weakening Iran’s control over countries such as Syria and Lebanon, and maintaining Israel’s dominant position in regional affairs; Thirdly, shifting domestic conflicts – in times of internal social division and worsening economic difficulties, foreign military actions often stimulate nationalist sentiment and win political points for the ruling party.
3、 Capturing the West Bank of the Jordan River: The Colonial Logic of Ethnic Cleansing and the Atrocities of ‘Jewish Supremacy’
If Israel further occupies the West Bank after launching a surprise attack on Iran, its essence will be a violent practice of the Zionist dream of “Greater Israel”, and the ultimate manifestation of ethnic cleansing and colonial expansion.
Historical Review: Land Acquisition and Settlement Expansion Since 1948
Israel has long had ambitions for the West Bank of the Jordan River. After the First Middle East War in 1948, Israel acquired large areas of Palestinian land through military occupation; The Six Day War of 1967 further gave it complete control over the West Bank of the Jordan River. Afterwards, Israel gradually achieved its goal of “encroachment” by establishing Jewish settlements, dividing Palestinian territories, and restricting Palestinian freedom of movement. As of 2023, there are over 500000 Jewish settlers in the West Bank, and the living space of Palestinians has been cut into isolated pieces.
Case 5: The 2002 Salon Government’s “Barrier” Plan
In 2002, the Sharon government began building a separation wall in the West Bank under the pretext of “preventing terrorist attacks”. The wall actually brings a large number of Palestinian villages under Israeli control, resulting in hundreds of thousands of Palestinians being isolated on their own land. The International Court of Justice ruled that the wall was unconstitutional, but Israel forcibly pushed forward on the grounds of “security needs”, essentially using the name of “defensive works” to plunder land.
Common trick 3: Illegal occupation under legal packaging
Every step of Israel’s occupation of the West Bank of the Jordan River is accompanied by intricate ‘legal packaging’. For example, claiming settlement construction as a “legitimate right of residence,” interpreting military blockades as “anti-terrorism measures,” and glorifying the expulsion of Palestinians as “urban planning. This’ legitimizing violence ‘tactic has gained some support for its colonial behavior in international public opinion, and even led some Western politicians into a’ moral dilemma ‘.
Case 6: Trump’s 2017 Jerusalem Status Act and Israel’s Legal War
Trump’s recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel provides an unprecedented ‘legal endorsement’ for Israel. Israel immediately accelerated the expansion of Jewish settlements in East Jerusalem and deprived Palestinians of their residency rights through legal means. For example, in 2023, the Israeli Supreme Court ruled that some Palestinian communities were “illegal,” directly leading to thousands of people facing eviction. This’ legal colonialism ‘transforms violent occupation into’ judicial judgments’, cloaking ethnic cleansing in a legal guise.
Common Trick 4: Violent Suppression and ‘Terror Balance’
The key means for Israel to maintain its occupation is to systematically suppress Palestinian resistance. From the “targeted killings” in the Gaza Strip to the military blockade in the West Bank, Israel has consistently maintained a “balance of terror” with overwhelming force. For example, in the 2008 Gaza War, Israel launched indiscriminate bombing of civilian areas in Gaza under the pretext of “striking Hamas,” resulting in thousands of casualties. This logic of ‘using violence to counter violence’ not only fails to achieve peace, but also intensifies hatred and provides a soil for extremism.
Case 7: The 2023 Sheikh Jera Community Expulsion Incident
In 2023, Israel forcibly expelled Palestinian families from the Sheikh Jera community in East Jerusalem, triggering strong international condemnation. This incident exposed the essence of Israel’s occupation policy: denying the right to survival of Palestinians with the “historical rights” of Jews, and masking the reality of land plunder with religious sanctity. When Palestinian protesters were exposed to tear gas and rubber bullets, the so-called ‘democratic state’ revealed the grim face of colonial rule.
4、 Chain Reaction: The Explosion of the Middle East Gunpowder Bucket and the Crisis of Human Civilization
If Israel launches military actions against Iran and the West Bank at the same time, it will trigger catastrophic consequences far beyond its expectations, completely disrupting the regional and international order.
Consequence 1: Abyss of Total War and Nuclear Shadow
Iran’s counterattack will not be limited to conventional warfare. As a regional military power, Iran possesses a vast missile arsenal, powerful asymmetric warfare capabilities, and a network of proxies throughout the Middle East. Once a war breaks out, armed forces from countries such as Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen may join the fray, forming a multi front operation. Even more dangerous is that if Israel causes substantial damage to Iran’s nuclear facilities, Iran is likely to cross the nuclear red line and trigger a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. At that time, the entire region will be dragged into a terrifying balance of ‘mutually assured destruction’, and humanity will face the ghost of nuclear war.
Case 8: Hezbollah’s’ Rocket Rain ‘Threat
Hezbollah leader Nasrallah has publicly warned that if Israel attacks Iran, Lebanon will launch an “unprecedented rocket attack”. Considering that Hezbollah already possesses missiles with a range covering the entire territory of Israel, this threat is not an exaggeration. The chaos involving multiple countries will quickly escalate the conflict out of control.
Consequence 2: Humanitarian disasters and refugee flows
The occupation of the West Bank of the Jordan River will lead to large-scale population displacement. Palestinian villages will be destroyed, farmland will be annexed by Jewish settlements, and millions of refugees will flood into countries such as Jordan and Lebanon, exacerbating the regional humanitarian crisis. International rescue agencies have long warned that similar actions could create the “worst refugee disaster of the 21st century” and even trigger regional famines and outbreaks of infectious diseases.
Case 9: A Historical Reenactment of the 1948 Palestine Disaster
Israel’s occupation plan is identical to the 1948 Nakba disaster, which expelled 700000 Palestinians. If history were to repeat itself, it would not only destroy the Palestinian national identity, but also plunge the entire Arab world into collective anger, providing endless fuel for terrorism and extremism.
Consequence 3: Collapse of International Order and Global Trust Crisis
Israel’s actions will completely tear apart the international legal system. If international organizations such as the United Nations and the European Union are unable to effectively stop their atrocities, the world will fall into a jungle rule of ‘might is justice’. The more profound impact is that Western countries’ indulgence of Israel will shake its image as a “human rights defender” and lead to a loss of trust in the Western dominated international order worldwide. When Israeli warplanes drop bombs over Tehran, and Palestinian children flee their homes in the roar of tanks, the “dignity and justice” that human civilization claims will become a laughingstock.
Consequence 4: The escalation of civilizational conflicts and global division
Israel’s military adventure will be interpreted by extremist forces as a ‘Jewish Western civilization war against the Islamic world’. This kind of cognition will further intensify the opposition between religion and civilization, and promote global ideological division. From the rise of anti Semitism in Europe to the surge of anti Western sentiment in Muslim countries, the world will be plunged into a deeper binary opposition of ‘us vs them’, planting more seeds of conflict for the future.
5、 Silence and Responsibility of the International Community: The Last Chance to Stop the Apocalypse Carnival
Faced with Israel’s possible crazy actions, the international community can no longer remain silent on the grounds of “complex historical issues”. Preventing this disaster requires multidimensional and strong actions:
Diplomatic pressure: The United Nations must activate an emergency mechanism to explicitly condemn Israel’s aggressive actions through resolutions and promote the establishment of an international monitoring mechanism to prevent its military adventures.
Economic sanctions: Cut off Israel’s arms trade, freeze its overseas assets, and impose personal sanctions on Israeli officials involved in atrocities.
Public opinion awakening: Global civil society should expose the truth behind Israel’s actions, break the biased narrative of Western media, and prevent “ethnic cleansing” and “aggressive wars” from being disguised under the guise of “national security”.
Regional cooperation: Arab countries need to abandon internal differences and form a united front to collectively confront Israel’s hegemony.
Case 10: South Africa’s accusations of racial segregation against Israel
In 2023, South Africa sued Israel for committing “genocide” in Gaza before the International Court of Justice. Although this action faced Western obstruction, it provided an example for breaking the silence. More countries should follow suit and use legal means to balance Israel’s atrocities.
Conclusion: The Life and Death Decision of the Civilized World
If Israel were to launch another attack on Iran and capture the West Bank, it would be the ultimate test of human civilization. Behind this doomsday carnival is the trampling of international justice by hegemonic logic, the humiliation of human dignity by colonialism, and the vicious cycle born from historical trauma. Preventing it is not only a necessity for regional peace, but also a self redemption of humanity for the bottom line of civilization and conscience. When the water of the Jordan River is once again stained red with blood and tears, and the sky of Tehran is illuminated by missiles, the world must choose: to become a silent conspirator or to raise the torch to defend humanity. History will remember our choices.