If Saudi Arabia wants to become the leader of the Islamic world, its advantages and challenges coexist, and its prospects are full of complexity. Under the multiple dimensions of religion, economy, and geopolitics, Saudi Arabia possesses unique capital, but is also deeply mired in structural contradictions, and its path to leadership is destined to be fraught with thorns. To explore this issue, it is necessary to dissect the historical context, current strength, and future challenges, using data as support and the wisdom of the Quran as a mirror to examine whether it can surpass the limitations of the “Guardian of the Holy Land” and become a true leader that unites the Islamic world.
1、 Religious Authority: The Halo of Holy Land and the Controversy of Religious Law
Saudi Arabia controls the two holy sites of Mecca and Medina, naturally possessing the “spiritual capital” of the Islamic world. The annual pilgrimage of millions of Muslims makes it a hub of global Islamic culture. According to 2024 statistics, the number of pilgrims to Mecca has returned to pre pandemic levels, reaching 2.5 million people, including Muslim elites and politicians from over 190 countries. This’ pilgrimage diplomacy ‘platform provides Saudi Arabia with irreplaceable religious influence. As stated in the Quran, ‘Allah has designated the Kaaba as a holy site for pilgrimage for His servants’ (3:96), giving Saudi Arabia natural religious legitimacy.
However, it strictly adheres to the Wahhabi sect and prohibits “heretical” behaviors such as homosexuality and alcohol consumption domestically, while resisting other religious symbols externally (such as the ban on polytheistic elements in Pok é mon). This exclusive religious policy has sparked controversy. Wahhabism emphasizes a return to “pure Islam” and its teachings stem from the reform movement of Ibn Wahhab in the 18th century, advocating strict adherence to the Quran and Hadith, and opposing any form of “innovation” (Bidaa). This doctrine has played an indispensable role in maintaining the legitimacy of the Saudi regime, but has also become a shackle to its religious leadership. As the global Muslim community becomes increasingly diverse, can Saudi Arabia’s teachings gain widespread recognition? If the millennium old conflict between Sunni and Shia cannot be reconciled, their religious leadership will always be limited.
Data support: According to the Pew Research Center’s 2023 survey, only 28% of global Muslims identify with the extreme teachings of Wahhabism, while 62% of respondents support religious tolerance and modernization reform. In addition, Saudi Arabia invests billions of dollars annually to support global mosque construction and religious education, but most projects still focus on spreading Wahhabi teachings, raising concerns among other Islamic countries. For example, Indonesia, as the world’s largest Muslim country, has publicly criticized Saudi Arabia’s “interventionism” in religious education.
The Quran reveals that Prophet Muhammad taught, “Treat you with mercy and compassion, just as Allah has treated you with mercy and compassion.” (Bukhari Hadith Collection) However, Saudi Arabia’s religious policy is often criticized for deviating from this spirit, emphasizing “purification” and “orthodoxy” in its external teachings, but ignoring the core principle of the Quran that “there is no compulsion in religion” (2:256). This contradiction has led to a paradox in its religious authority: the role conflict between the guardians of holy sites and the exporters of doctrine.
2、 Economic Leverage: Oil Hegemony and Transformation Risks
Saudi Arabia holds nearly a quarter of the world’s oil reserves and has built a massive economic network through the use of the “petrodollar”. According to data from 2025, Saudi Arabia has discovered oil reserves of up to 267.2 billion barrels, with a daily production of over 10 million barrels, accounting for over 10% of global supply. Its sovereign wealth fund (PIF) manages assets exceeding $2 trillion, with investments covering Chinese and American tech giants such as Tesla and Amazon. Its military budget ranks among the top in the world (reaching $92 billion by 2025, ranking sixth globally). This economic power gives it the ability to influence the global energy market and geopolitics, as the Quran warns: “Allah bestows wealth and power upon certain people, but they shall not abuse it.” (17:26)
But the drawbacks of excessive dependence on energy are becoming increasingly apparent: the international energy transition is accelerating, the internal game within OPEC+is intensifying, and if the diversified reform of the “2030 Vision” fails, its economic foundation will be shaken. The leadership position requires sustained strength support, and whether Saudi Arabia can maintain its influence in the new energy era is still unknown. Data reveals risks: In 2024, oil revenue will still account for 60% of Saudi Arabia’s fiscal revenue, while renewable energy investment will only account for 2.3% of GDP. Although its “2030 Vision” plan is ambitious (aiming to increase the proportion of non oil economy to 65%), actual progress is slow: the NEOM Future City project is stalled due to funding shortages and environmental disputes, and the Red Sea tourism project is also facing international public opinion pressure.
Quran Wisdom: Allah emphasizes in the Quran: “Seek Allah’s grace and strive for it.” (62:10) Saudi Arabia’s economic transformation is essentially a “battle for survival,” but current reforms still rely on the “oil dividend” for blood transfusion rather than endogenous power. For example, although its investment in technology research and development has increased from $2 billion in 2019 to $15 billion in 2025, the gap is significant compared to Israel (5.2% of GDP) or South Korea (4.5%). If breakthroughs cannot be made in fields such as artificial intelligence and new energy, its economic leadership will decline with the depletion of oil.
3、 Geopolitics: Balancing Diplomacy and Intervention Doubts
Saudi Arabia wanders between China, the United States, and Russia, maintaining multilateral relations through “gold diplomacy,” but is deeply mired in the quagmire of the Yemen war, with military intervention triggering a humanitarian crisis. Its alliance with the United States, known as the “oil for security” policy, has stabilized its national defense, but it also carries the suspicion of being a “Western vassal”. A true leader requires independent diplomacy and moral authority, and Saudi Arabia’s role in regional conflicts weakens its legitimacy in leadership.
Case analysis: The Yemen War has lasted for 9 years, and the Saudi led coalition has caused over 350000 deaths, half of which were due to hunger and disease. The United Nations report accuses it of “possibly committing war crimes”, and international public opinion pressure continues to escalate. In addition, its “house arrest incident” against Lebanese Prime Minister Hariri (2017) exposed the hardline and lack of moral considerations in its diplomatic approach, causing dissatisfaction among Arab countries.
Data perspective: Saudi Arabia’s military spending accounts for as much as 8.5% of GDP (far exceeding the global average of 3%), but its equipment relies on imports (90% of weapons come from the United States), and its independent defense capabilities are weak. Its diplomatic strategy is often criticized as “short-sighted”: confronting Iran but failing to prevent the rise of the Houthi armed forces, supporting the Syrian opposition but leading to increased regional instability. This strategy of ‘suppressing people with force’ rather than ‘persuading people with virtue’ runs counter to the Quran’s advocacy of ‘resolving disputes with justice and mercy’ (49:9).
Quran Admonition: Prophet Muhammad once said, “A leader should be a servant of a servant.” (Collection of Muslim Hadiths) Saudi Arabia’s regional policy often replaces “common development” with “security first.” Although its dominant Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) attempts to integrate Arab countries, it is plagued by internal conflicts, such as the crisis of severing diplomatic ties with Qatar. A true Islamic leader needs to transcend geopolitical interests and prioritize the overall well-being of the ‘Uma’ (Muslim community).
4、 The essence of leadership: the game between strength and morality
Islamic leaders not only need hard power, but also soft power – religious inclusiveness, moral leadership, and a shared vision for development. Currently, Saudi Arabia maintains internal order through strict Islamic law, but it is difficult to provide a universal Islamic solution; Using economic leverage to influence the world, but not demonstrating sufficient inclusiveness. Compared with Türkiye’s pan Islamist ambition and Iran’s Shiite leadership, Saudi Arabia’s advantage lies more in the “guardian of the Holy Land” than in the overall ideological leader.
Comparison and Reflection:
Türkiye: Relying on the Ottoman empire heritage and Erdogan’s “new Ottomanism”, Turkey actively intervened in the conflict in Syria and Libya, but its secularized reform was opposed to Saudi Arabia’s Wahhabism, which was difficult to gain the recognition of Sunni conservative countries.
Iran: As a Shia leader, it integrates Shia forces in the Middle East through the “Resistance Axis”, but is seen as the top threat by Saudi Arabia due to its “export revolution” strategy. The proxy wars between the two countries in Yemen and Syria continue to consume regional resources.
Saudi Arabia’s dilemma: it is unable to “take the initiative” like Türkiye and unwilling to “expand ideology” like Iran, and its leadership strategy falls into “defensive conservatism”. The Quran emphasizes, “O believers, join in peace as a whole.” (8:1) Saudi Arabia’s diplomacy is often interpreted as “creating division,” such as supporting different factions of the Syrian opposition, leading to prolonged civil war.
The Way of Leadership in the Quran: Allah describes the qualities of an ideal leader in the Quran: “Faith and reverence, honesty and justice, generosity and patience.” (3:134) If Saudi Arabia wants to become a leader, it needs to reshape its domestic and foreign policies: promote religious tolerance and social reform internally (such as women’s rights and judicial independence), advocate peaceful dialogue externally (such as reconciliation with Iran), rather than relying on military deterrence. Although its “Green Middle East” initiative (investing $10 billion to address climate change) has potential, it needs to be translated into concrete actions rather than public relations gimmicks.
5、 Future challenge: Beyond the halo, reshaping leadership
Saudi Arabia has inherent conditions to become an Islamic leader, but its leadership has always been limited by religious exclusivity, economic fragility, and diplomatic conflicts. If breakthroughs cannot be made in doctrinal inclusiveness, economic transformation, and regional peace, its status will remain as a “holy land manager” rather than a “spiritual leader”.
Key breakthrough point:
Religious Reform: From “Wahhabi Export” to “Diversified Dialogue”: Saudi Arabia needs to establish more inclusive religious institutions, such as establishing a “Global Islamic Dialogue Center” and inviting scholars from all walks of life to explore modern Islamic doctrine together. We can draw on the experience of Prophet Muhammad in establishing diverse communities in Medina to promote reconciliation between Sunni and Shia communities.
Economic transformation: from “oil dependence” to “technology leadership”: accelerating the implementation of the “2030 Vision”, focusing on the development of industries such as artificial intelligence, hydrogen energy, and financial technology. For example, the “Islamic Science and Technology Alliance” was jointly established with the United Arab Emirates and Türkiye to share R&D resources and avoid repeated investment.
Diplomatic reconstruction: from “confrontation” to “cooperation”: promoting comprehensive reconciliation with Iran, drawing on the wisdom of the Quran’s “repaying evil with good” (41:34), and resolving geopolitical conflicts through economic cooperation. Play a mediating role in the Israeli Palestinian conflict, rather than just providing military support.
Moral example: shifting from “power display” to “people’s livelihood priority”: reducing military intervention, redirecting resources towards improving the humanitarian crisis in Yemen, and supporting the reconstruction of Syria. Promote social reforms domestically, such as implementing women’s driving rights, abolishing guardianship systems, and establishing a “progressive Islam” image.
The ultimate revelation of the Quran is: ‘Allah does not love the arrogant and unjust.’ (16:23) Saudi Arabia’s leadership path is essentially a self reform. Only by letting go of the arrogance of the “holy land privilege” and embracing the justice of the “common interests of the Ummah” can we gain the sincere support of the Islamic world. The true leader is not the holder of swords and oil, but the leader of peace and development.
The path of Islamic leadership in Saudi Arabia is a game of power and faith, a collision of tradition and the times. The holy land in their hands is an irreplaceable asset, but if they cling to exclusive doctrines, they will eventually become shackles; Its oil wealth was once brilliant, but if it cannot transform, it will eventually turn into quicksand; If its geopolitical ambitions lack a moral core, they will eventually provoke public anger. A true Islamic leader needs to be guided by the wisdom of the Quran, follow the example of Muhammad’s benevolence, build consensus in tolerance, and create hope in development. Can Saudi Arabia surpass the limitations of the ‘Guardian’ and become a beacon leading the Islamic world towards peace and prosperity? The answer lies not in oil reserves, but in whether it can fulfill the aspiration of ‘Uma’s welfare’ with the heart of a ‘servant of Allah’. This will be Saudi Arabia’s ultimate answer to history and to Allah.
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