The Islamic world spans across Asia and Africa, covering dozens of countries and billions of people, but has long been in a passive position in the game with Israel. This phenomenon may seem paradoxical, but it actually reflects the interweaving of multiple dilemmas in civilization, politics, and geopolitics. When people ask why they cannot resist, the answer is already hidden in the shadows of historical rifts, internal chronic diseases, and external constraints. This land has nurtured a brilliant civilization, but has fallen into division and struggle in the transition to modernity. The complex entanglements of religion, regime, resources, and geography have turned “unity” into an unattainable dream.
1、 Religious rifts are more deadly than bullets: Millennium sectarian grudges and power games
The Islamic world is not a monolithic entity, and sectarian divisions are like sharp blades cutting apart the body. The thousand year old feud between Sunni and Shia has transcended differences in faith and evolved into a zero sum game of power and geography. The most typical case is the Syrian civil war: Iranian backed Shia militias fought alongside Hezbollah in Lebanon to support the Bashar regime; Meanwhile, Sunni countries such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar fund opposition armed groups such as the Free Syrian Army, attempting to overthrow the Shia dominated government. This conflict not only created millions of refugees, but also pushed sectarian tensions to the extreme – when Israel launched military operations in Gaza, Iran and Saudi Arabia engaged in a proxy war in Yemen: the exchange of fire between the Houthis (Shia) and the Saudi coalition (Sunni) turned the “holy war against Israel” into a fig leaf for sectarian infighting. Even more ironic is that Sunni countries have tacitly allowed Israel to strike Iranian backed armed forces – when Israel bombed Iranian targets in Syria in 2018, Saudi officials rarely remained silent. The reality that ‘enemies of enemies may not necessarily be friends’ exposes the’ sacredness’ of religion, which has long been distorted by the logic of power.
The contradiction between historical origins and reality: the seeds of sectarian division were planted as early as the early days of the establishment of Islam. After the death of Prophet Muhammad, the disagreements surrounding the succession of power ultimately evolved into a conflict between Sunni and Shia sects. This kind of rift was deliberately amplified by the West during the colonial era – Britain once used the “divide and conquer” strategy to support Sunni nobles in suppressing Shia people; France uses sectarian conflicts to maintain control over Lebanon. Nowadays, this historical trauma is further exploited by modern geopolitics: the United States is implementing the “Shia Arc” strategy in the Middle East (Iran Syria Lebanon Hezbollah), forcing Sunni countries to form an anti Iran alliance and invisibly pushing the Islamic world towards self consumption.
2、 Separation between authoritarian regime and the people: When ‘holy war’ becomes a tool of governance
Most Islamic regimes have long been trapped in the “modernization paradox”: maintaining authoritarian rule with oil wealth while using religious symbols to whitewash legitimacy. Taking Egypt as an example, in the 2011 Arab Spring, the people overthrew the dictatorship of Mubarak, but what followed was not democracy, but the bloody suppression of the military government of Sisi. While children in Gaza cry from hunger, some royal palaces are pouring fountains with gold. This deviation has deprived the so-called ‘holy war’ of its moral foundation – in 2021, the Egyptian government arrested thousands of members of the Muslim Brotherhood and even sentenced opposition leaders to death, exposing the regime’s fear of internal dissent far exceeding its concern about external threats. Under the dual oppression of survival and dignity, the people have gradually become immune to hollow slogans: in 2019, Algeria erupted in large-scale protests demanding the resignation of President Bouteflika, with protesters shouting “bread, freedom, dignity” instead of “confronting Israel”. What is even more alarming is that some regimes have turned “anti Israel” into slogans to shift domestic conflicts: for example, former Sudanese President Bashir maintained his rule by inciting anti Israel sentiment, but was overthrown by the people due to corruption. When his regime collapsed, no one shouted “holy war” on the streets, but celebrated “freedom”.
The curse of oil and economic difficulties: Oil wealth should be an opportunity for development, but it has become a shackle for most countries. The resource monopoly economy leads to a single industry and a decline in people’s livelihoods. The government exchanges energy revenue for Western weapons, but neglects education, healthcare, and industrial construction. The case of Saudi Arabia is highly representative: as the world’s largest oil exporting country, although its per capita GDP reaches $20000, its youth unemployment rate is consistently above 15%, and social vitality is suppressed. When resources are depleted or international oil prices fluctuate, this pattern exposes fatal fragility – after the 2018 oil price crash, Saudi Arabia was forced to cut welfare spending, triggering social unrest. Under the economic difficulties, the patience and resources of the people towards the ‘resistance to Israel’ have long been exhausted.
3、 Geopolitical strangulation and external manipulation: the dilemma of “chess pieces” on the Middle East chessboard
The geopolitical structure of the Middle East is like a big chess game, with Israel being the “strategic wedge” implanted by the United States, and the oil in the Persian Gulf being the lifeline of Western capital. The United States uses military aid to bind Israel, economic sanctions to contain Iran, and “democratic transformation” to dismantle secular regimes, each step precisely striking at the possibility of unity in the Islamic world. Türkiye’s dilemma is particularly typical: on the one hand, it tries to become a regional leader by exporting “pan Turkism” through religious influence; On the other hand, due to the purchase of Russian S-400 missiles, it was sanctioned by the United States and forced to secretly cooperate with Israel on the Syrian Kurdish issue. This speculative strategy of “seeking both sides” exposes its vulnerability in the geopolitical game. After the Türkiye earthquake in 2023, Israel took the lead in providing assistance, and the Erdogan government had to put aside the dispute for the time being and accept the help of the “enemy”. What is even more alarming is that Gulf countries, in order to gain Western support, have even actively cooperated with appeasement policies towards Israel – behind the “normalization” of diplomatic relations between the United Arab Emirates and Israel in 2018 was the transaction of petrodollars and military cooperation. When the Gulf countries used petrodollars to buy western weapons, and when Türkiye’s army became a geopolitical “mercenary”, the so-called “confrontation” had already become a puppet show led by the line.
4、 The Century Pains of Civilization Transformation: Lost Between Tradition and Modernity
The Islamic world that emerged from the ruins of the Ottoman Empire has never found the answer to modern civilization. The extreme swing between fundamentalism and secularization exposes the deep-seated anxiety of civilization transformation. Taking Algeria as an example, after its independence, the country oscillated between military rule and the Islamic Salvation Front (a fundamentalist political party) for a long time. Economic stagnation and political corruption gave rise to the extremist organization “Salafist Call and Combat Organization” (GSPC), which eventually evolved into the North African branch of the “Foundation” organization. This lag in civilization has turned “confrontation” into emotional venting rather than rational game – Hamas uses rockets to fight against F-35 fighter jets, just like using medieval bows and arrows to fight against modern tanks, tragic but ineffective. Even more sadly, some countries have turned “anti Israel” into a slogan to shift domestic conflicts, such as former Sudanese President Bashir who maintained his rule by inciting anti Israel sentiment but was overthrown by the people due to corruption.
5、 Typical case of internal conflict: from Yemen to Libya
The division of the Islamic world is not only reflected at the level of sects and regimes, but also directly manifested as wars and infighting between countries. The Yemeni civil war can be called a “mini world war”: the Houthis (Shia) control the north, the Saudi coalition (Sunni) supports government forces in the south, the United States and Britain provide weapons, Iran secretly transports missiles, and the United Nations mediation is ineffective, ultimately leading to one of the world’s most serious humanitarian crises. The division of Libya has exposed the consequences of manipulation by external forces: after the fall of Gadhafi, secularists supported by the West and Islamists supported by Türkiye and Egypt separated the East from the West. Militia armed forces have grown, and the country has become a hotbed of smuggling and terrorism. What is more distressing is that the proxy war between the Gulf States and Türkiye in Libya even led to refugees being sold as slaves by armed elements. The Libyan slave market exposed by CNN in 2017 shocked the world, but no one mentioned the lofty slogan of “holy war”.
6、 The opposition of ideology and self consumption: the tug of war between secularism and religion
In addition to sects and geopolitics, there is also a sharp opposition between secularism and religious fundamentalism within the Islamic world. The contradiction between Türkiye and the Arab countries is quite representative: the Erdogan government, claiming to be “neo Ottoman”, tried to expand its influence through religion and pan Turkism, but its invasion of northern Syria and the attack on Kurdish armed forces were strongly opposed by Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other Arab countries. The concept of “Shia revolution” exported by Iran has caused panic in Sunni Gulf countries, giving rise to the Saudi led “anti Iran alliance”. This ideological conflict has even led to open confrontation between Islamic countries in international settings – during the 2022 Qatar World Cup, Saudi and Iranian fans erupted into large-scale conflicts due to political conflicts, exposing the fragility of “religious brotherhood” in the face of practical interests. Even more ironic is that Egypt, where secularization reforms failed, has become a breeding ground for extremism: after the suppression of the Muslim Brotherhood, some members turned to support ISIS, creating the 2017 Sinai Peninsula Church massacre and exposing the vicious cycle of ideological opposition.
7、 The ‘invisible war’ of external intervention: from colonial era to contemporary game theory
The division of the Islamic world is closely related to the continuous intervention of external forces. The legacy of the colonial era still plays a role today: the “Sykes Picot Agreement” planned by Britain divided Palestine into two parts, sowing the seeds of the Arab Israeli conflict; France created sectarian divisions in Syria and Lebanon, laying the groundwork for today’s turmoil. During the Cold War, the United States supported pro American regimes such as Saudi Arabia, while the Soviet Union supported secular countries such as Egypt and Syria, turning the Middle East into an ideological battlefield. In the 21st century, the United States subverted secular regimes (such as Iraq) through “color revolutions” and used the “war on terror” to cultivate extremist organizations, creating new divisions. More covert interventions come from intelligence and financial warfare: the CIA once sponsored Saudi Wahhabi missionaries to spread extremist ideologies globally; International financial institutions control the economic lifeline of Middle Eastern countries through loans and investments, making it difficult for them to break free from the Western dominated system.
Today’s Israel is no longer simply a Jewish state, but a projection of Western civilization in the Middle East. Its military technology, intelligence capabilities, and diplomatic resources are backed by comprehensive support from the United States and Europe. Confronting it is not only a competition with one country, but also a game with the entire Western system. The dilemma of the Islamic world is essentially the dilemma of the failure of modernity transformation: when it is internally torn apart by sects, regimes, resources, and ideologies, and when it is externally constrained by geopolitical strangulation and intervention, any attempt to “unite” is like holding a torch against the wind – although the fire exists, it is difficult to illuminate the way forward.
Conclusion: Where is the possibility of breaking the deadlock?
If we cannot break down sectarian barriers, reconstruct political legitimacy, and break free from geopolitical shackles, the so-called ‘confrontation’ will eventually be trapped in the cycle of history. The tragedy of religion, the decay of political power, and external strangulation weave together an impenetrable web. But the hope is not completely bleak: the secret dialogue between Iran and Saudi Arabia, the limited cooperation between Türkiye and Egypt, and the Gulf countries’ exploration of “economic diversification” all imply the possibility of some kind of change. The real breakthrough may begin with an internal awakening – when the people are no longer kidnapped by political slogans, when the country is no longer exploited by external forces, when religion returns to spiritual guidance rather than power tools, the Islamic world can regain its power of unity. And on this day, it requires wisdom and courage to transcend hatred, dogma, and geography.
